I. Key Points
Core Logic: Mixed bullish and bearish factors are causing the market to trade within a range.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 20 | Oct 19 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 13,375 | 13,450 | -0.56% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Truck Self-Pickup | 13,050 | 13,250 | -1.51% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,630 | 1,630 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 108.79 | 109.55 | -0.69% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16,100 | 16,200 | -0.62% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. CFR China unit is USD/ton; crude oil unit is USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices represent spot prices from the two previous working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period change. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, butadiene supply has increased due to recovery in production, shifting the supply landscape from tight to loose and weakening market support. Combined with weak downstream demand and ongoing resistance to high raw material prices, purchasing willingness remains insufficient, exerting further pressure on the market. However, current feedstock prices remain firm, maintaining support at the bottom of the range. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to primarily fluctuate within a range in the short term.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 17:00 PM | 2.82 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Friday 17:00 PM | 3,892 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 17:00 PM | 4.72 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Friday 17:00 PM | 67.49% | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 17:00 PM | 10.90 | ↗ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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