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Home > News > Morning Market Brief: Ethanol

Morning Market Brief: Ethanol

Published on 2026-11-13

I. Key Focus Points

  1. Nov 12: The outlook for US-Iran relations remains uncertain, and market concerns regarding supply risks persist, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $88.74/barrel, up $2.21 (+2.55%); ICE Brent crude oil futures (January contract) closed at $95.82/barrel, up $3.06 (+3.30%). China INE crude oil futures (January 2027 contract) fell by 11.8 to 595.9 CNY/barrel during the day session, then rose by 14.6 to 610.5 CNY/barrel in the night session.

Core Logic:

  1. Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional food-grade standard ethanol prices fluctuated slightly due to plant adjustments; changes were narrow within regions.
  2. Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol prices saw minor fluctuations across regions.
  3. Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol prices remained stable with consolidation; procurement prices from local refineries fluctuated slightly.
  4. Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol offers trended downward amid volatility.

II. Price Table

Product Region 2026/11/12 2026/11/11 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 88.74 86.53 +2.21
Brent 95.82 92.76 +3.06
Domestic Gasoline Guide Price (89#) Shandong 8475 8475
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 240-245 240-245 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Plant Equivalent East China 1947-1984 1947-1984 CNY/ton
Corn (Plant Gate) Heilongjiang 2028-2057 2028-2057
Jilin 2160-2180 2160-2180
Henan 2200-2220 2200-2220 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2280-2280 2280-2280 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Heilongjiang (East) 5150-5250 5150-5250 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5300 5250-5300 Corn-based
Jilin 5350-5450 5350-5450 Corn-based
Shandong - - Cassava, ex-factory
Shandong 5580-5650 5580-5650 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5700-5700 5750-5750 -50/-50 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5950-6000 5950-6000 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Anhui 5700-5750 5700-5750 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 5850-5900 5850-5900 Molasses/Cassava-based
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 5200-5300 5200-5300 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5450-5600 5450-5600 Corn-based
Shandong 5620-5700 5620-5700 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5750-5750 5800-5800 -50/-50
Henan 5610-5630 5610-5630 Corn-based, low end from small plants in Xinxiang
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5800-5900 5800-5900 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5950-6000 5950-6000 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5800-5850 5800-5850 Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5900-5920 5900-5920 Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
Henan (Standard) 6150-6200 6150-6200 Corn-based, low end from small plants in Xinxiang
Henan (Premium) 6250-6250 6250-6250 Corn-based, no stock currently
Northern Jiangsu 6300-6350 6350-6400 -50/-50 Cassava-based
Anhui 6400-6400 6400-6400 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 6600-6700 6600-6700 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5600-5700 5600-5700 Standard grade, corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5800-5901 5800-5901 Delivered price in Heilongjiang
Heilongjiang (West) 5800-5901 5800-5901 Delivered price in Heilongjiang
Liaoning 5550-6180 5550-6180 Delivered price in Liaoning
Jilin 5600-6149 5600-6149 High-end delivered price in Jilin
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 5550-5670 - Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Auction Start 5370-5400 5370-5400 Online auction start price, small lots
Anhui Auction Start 5900 5900 Online auction start price
Henan Standard 5900 5900 Quoted price, negotiable upon transaction
Henan High-end - - Plant shutdown
Shandong 6200 6200 Plant shutdown
Hunan 6050 6050 Quoted price, negotiable upon transaction
Hebei 6350 6350 Quoted price, negotiable upon transaction
Hubei 5900 5900 Quoted price, negotiable upon transaction
Guangdong 6400 6400 Quoted price, negotiable upon transaction
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-works) 6450-6550 6450-6600 0/-50
MTBE Shandong (Ex-works) 6330-6400 6520-6600 -190/-200
DDGS Heilongjiang 2020-2140 2020-2140
Jilin 2170-2290 2170-2290
Henan 2150-2150 2150-2150
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang - Shandong 480-540 480-540 Standard ethanol
Henan - Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang - Shandong 380-430 380-430 Standard ethanol
Northwest - Shandong 270-350 270-350
Mengzhou - Chengdu 350-390 350-390 Return empty trucks are cheaper

Units: CNY/ton, USD/barrel

III. Data Table

Data Type This Week Last Week Expected Trend
Cassava Ethanol Profit 279.51 -279.51 ↗
Corn Ethanol Profit -138.75 -138.75 ↗
Coal-based Ethanol Profit 300 300 ↗
Remarks: 1. Cassava ethanol profit refers to production profit for cassava ethanol in Northern Jiangsu, East China. 2. Corn ethanol profit refers to production profit for corn ethanol in Heilongjiang, Northeast China. 3. Molasses ethanol profit refers to production profit for molasses ethanol in southern markets.

Unit: CNY/ton

IV. Market Outlook

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China are stable, supported by previous orders, keeping short-term trends flat. In East China, prices are stable but weakish; downstream chemical users primarily consume coal-based ethanol with lower delivered prices, limiting consumption of local supply. Supply in Xinxiang, Henan has decreased, supporting price trends in Mengzhou. Coal-based ethanol prices are stable as shipments fulfill contract orders, leaving factories with no inventory pressure. Fuel ethanol prices are stable; although downstream demand is poor, factories show little willingness to cut prices.

Data Release Time Current Period Data Expected Trend
Ethanol Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 59.19% ↗
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 51.08% ↗
Remarks: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

(Note: The following table appears to be historical reference data dated Oct 28, 2025)

Product Region 2025/10/28 2025/10/27 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 60.15 61.31 -1.16
Brent 64.4 65.62 -1.22
Domestic Gasoline Guide Price (89#) Shandong 7969 7969
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 212-215 212-215 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Plant Equivalent East China 1828-1856 1828-1856 CNY/ton
Corn (Plant Gate) Heilongjiang 1955-2002 1955-2002
Jilin 2010-2090 2020-2090 -10/0
Henan 2200-2210 2200-2210 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2170-2170 2160-2160 +10/+10 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Heilongjiang (East) 4820-4830 4820-4830 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 4850-4900 4850-4900 Corn-based
Jilin 4950-5050 4950-5050 Corn-based
Shandong 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Shandong 5150-5300 5150-5300 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5300-5300 5300-5300 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Anhui 5350-5350 5350-5350 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 5650-5700 5650-5700 Cassava-based
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 4900-4950 4900-4950 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5100-5450 5100-5450 Corn-based
Shandong 5300-5350 5300-5350 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5380-5380 5380-5380
Henan 5230-5250 5230-5250 Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5400-5450 5400-5450 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5450-5500 5450-5500 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5500-5850 5500-5850 Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5650-5950 5650-5950 Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
Henan (Standard) 5900-5950 5900-5950 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) - - Corn-based, no stock currently
Northern Jiangsu 5900-5900 5900-5900 Cassava-based
Anhui 5900-5950 5900-5950 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 6350-6450 6350-6450 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5100-5200 5100-5200 Standard grade, corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5200-5200 5200-5200
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5250 5250-5250
Liaoning 5500-5500 5500-5500
Jilin 5400-5400 5400-5400
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 5250-5250 5260-5290 -10/-40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Auction Start 5450 5450 Online quote
Anhui Auction Start 5400 - Online auction start price
Henan Standard 5800 5800 Ethyl acetate hydrogenation
Henan High-end - - Quote (plant shut down on 13th)
Shandong 5400 5460 -60 Quote
Hunan 5600 5600 Quote
Hebei 5600 5600 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Guangdong - -
Guangdong High-end 5950 6100 -150 High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-works) 5140-5200 5140-5200
MTBE Shandong (Ex-works) 4850-4950 4900-4950 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2030-2150 2030-2150
Jilin 1950-2250 1950-2250
Henan 2330-2330 2330-2330
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang - Shandong 280-300 280-300 Standard ethanol
Henan - Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang - Shandong 330-370 330-370 Fuel ethanol
Northwest - Shandong 260-270 260-270
Mengzhou - Chengdu 250-300 250-300 Return empty trucks are cheaper

Comments

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  • Olivier Dupont 2026-11-13 20:00
    Crude volatility from geopolitical tensions hasn't dented ethanol stability, though MTBE's sharp drop pressures downstream demand. With coal-based offers softening, I expect margin compression for integrated producers de..
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