Introduction: Following the National Day holiday, the DOTP market has entered a stalemate after an initial rally. Buyers and sellers remain locked in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, leading to cautious price adjustments and a dilemma regarding upward or downward movements. In the Zhejiang region, for example, mainstream prices have remained stable at approximately 10,600 RMB/ton this week.
| Figure 1: Theoretical Profit Trend of Domestic Isobutanol (2025-2026) (RMB/ton) | Figure 2: Weekly Average Operating Rate Trend of Isobutanol and Downstream Products (2026) (RMB/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Post-holiday domestic isobutanol prices have continued to rise. As of today, the Shandong market quote for isobutanol stands at 9,500 RMB/ton, a cumulative increase of 700 RMB/ton since October 8. This rally was primarily driven by upstream propylene price hikes. Propylene's high-level operation provided strong cost support for isobutanol, keeping the industry in a state of cost inversion. The theoretical weekly average profit for isobutanol was -219 RMB/ton this week, with losses briefly exceeding 300 RMB/ton during the period. However, following recent price increases, industry profits have turned positive. As of today, the contracted listing price for Shandong isobutanol is 9,600 RMB/ton, yielding a profit of 58 RMB/ton.
The contraction in isobutanol supply and expectations of further reduction are another core support factor for this price rise. Post-holiday, the weekly average operating rate for isobutanol was 71%, down 4 percentage points from the National Day holiday period. Conversely, the operating rates for major downstream products DOTP and DOP increased by 2 and 4 percentage points respectively, creating a market pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. Additionally, the Nanjing Chengzhi isobutanol unit plans for shutdown maintenance in mid-to-late October, which will further lower the local self-sufficiency rate of isobutanol in East China. Consequently, there is a clear expectation of reduced overall domestic supply. Positive outlooks have boosted market sentiment, prompting downstream buyers to replenish stocks early, further pushing up isobutanol prices.
The rise in the key raw material, isobutanol, provides strong bullish support for the DOTP market.
| Figure 3: Spot Basis Trend of PTA (RMB/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
On the first trading day after the holiday, PTA prices surged strongly, boosted by multiple bullish factors including rising costs and unit maintenance shutdowns. However, terminal orders were weak, and downstream polyester enterprises intensified production cuts, leading to sustained weakness on the demand side. As the post-holiday restocking phase concluded, downstream purchasing willingness declined. Continuous inventory accumulation alleviated the tight spot market situation, causing PTA prices to retreat from highs. Currently, the East China spot quote for PTA is 7,030 RMB/ton, a drop of 658 RMB/ton (-9%) compared to last Thursday. As another key raw material for DOTP, the decline in PTA prices creates room for profit recovery in the DOTP industry but also exerts some pressure on market sentiment among DOTP traders.
| Figure 4: Weekly Average Capacity Utilization Rate Trend of DOTP (2024-2026) | Figure 4: DOTP Price Trend Chart (2026) (RMB/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Previous phased restocking demand has been fully released. Combined with DOTP prices hitting year-to-date highs, buyer follow-up has become cautious, new order transactions have slowed, and upward price momentum faces resistance. Meanwhile, the decline in PTA prices drags on market sentiment, resulting in interwoven bullish and bearish factors on the cost side. Regarding supply and demand, downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand at lower prices, with insufficient willingness for large-scale stockpiling. On the supply side, DOTP output remains at a medium-to-low level for the year. DOTP producers face no significant inventory pressure, with some factories queuing for shipment due to limited spot availability, providing support to the market trend.
Overall, both cost and supply-demand sides present a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. Lacking clear directional guidance, the market faces a dilemma between rising and falling prices, settling into a stalemate consolidation.
(Note: Specific forecast details were not provided in the source text beyond the section header, implying the current stalemate analysis extends forward unless major shifts occur.)
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