Methanol prices trended higher, with futures hitting the daily limit up, supported by low inventory levels.

1. Key Points of the Day

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin set today's methanol auction starting price at 3,270 yuan/ton for a volume of 7,000 tons. Ultimately, 6,210 tons were sold at this price, with a small portion remaining unsold (failed auction).

② Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuo County) ignited and restarted its 2 million ton/year coal-to-methanol unit on October 21. The plant is currently gradually increasing its load.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

(Note: Figure captions and image sources have been omitted as per instructions.)

[Daily Commentary] Today, the domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,549.55 (+89.25). Specifically, Taicang spot prices rose to 4,203 (+186), and Inner Mongolia North Line prices increased to 3,310 (+62.5). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, 17 cities recorded varying degrees of price increases, ranging from 60 to 310 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market trended strongly upward today. Futures hit the daily limit up during trading hours, and port transaction centers followed suit with rising prices. Current coastal inventories remain persistently low, and demand for end-of-month replenishment orders persists. The basis strengthened initially but weakened later in the day; attention should be paid to the status of the Yangtze River estuary navigation restrictions. Both inland production and sales markets rose to varying extents. Overall upstream inventories remain low, combined with essential downstream demand intervention, resulting in favorable short-term supply-demand dynamics in inland areas. The market is expected to consolidate within a narrow range. Additionally, monitor potential fluctuations in startup/shutdown schedules for some inland methanol projects between late October and early November.

3. Basis

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In the afternoon, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange maintained strong momentum. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,235 yuan/ton, reached a high of 3,389 yuan/ton, and a low of 3,228 yuan/ton, closing at 3,389 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement price. By the close, open interest for the MA2701 contract stood at 952,600 lots, an increase of 67,000 lots compared to the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market trended strongly upward. Futures hit the daily limit up, and port transaction centers followed with rising prices. Coastal inventories remain persistently low, and demand for end-of-month replenishment orders persists. The basis strengthened initially but weakened later in the day; attention should be paid to the status of the Yangtze River estuary navigation restrictions. Both inland production and sales markets rose to varying extents. Overall upstream inventories remain low, combined with essential downstream demand intervention, resulting in favorable short-term supply-demand dynamics in inland areas. The market is expected to consolidate within a narrow range. Additionally, monitor potential fluctuations in startup/shutdown schedules for some inland methanol projects between late October and early November.

7. In the medium to long term, facing post-holiday high methanol prices, some mainstream downstream enterprises have shut down operations, significantly alleviating the tight supply situation in the methanol market. With ship arrivals expected in November leading to increased port inventories, regional methanol prices are likely to fluctuate narrowly as the market adopts a wait-and-see attitude. Attention remains focused on the impact of supply-demand bargaining in the methanol market.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Industry Stakeholders (Upstream & Downstream)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Since the weekend, factory prices have risen in certain regions. Today, overall shipping sentiment among factories varied. Northwest regions continued their previous shipping pace. In Central China, while local factories underwent maintenance, other plants managed decent shipments. In East China, affected by prior navigation closures, inventory levels for some enterprises increased. Chempricehub predicts that the glacial acetic acid market will likely remain stable in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market rose today. Strengthening raw material methanol prices provided strong cost support for factories, leading to price increases for finished products. Downstream wood panel manufacturers showed reasonable enthusiasm for entering the market, with strong willingness to take delivery, facilitating smooth factory shipments. Chempricehub predicts that the formaldehyde market will fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market remained steady with slight gains today. In Chongqing, supported by demand, factory shipments were smooth amid tight internal supply, resulting in good overall transactions. As domestic methanol trends stronger, cost support facilitated price rises. Other regions temporarily remained stable. Chempricehub predicts that the DME market will run steadily with a slightly bullish bias in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.