Price Trends of 32% Caustic Soda Liquid in Major Chinese Provinces (2024–2026) (Wet Ton, CNY/ton)
This week, the domestic caustic soda liquid market showed regional divergence:
North China:
The average price of 32% caustic soda liquid in Shandong declined this week, with the most significant drops occurring in Southwestern, Western, and Southern Shandong, while Northern Shandong remained largely stable. Early in the week, local prices softened as commodity volumes increased, putting pressure on high-priced offers which subsequently fell throughout the period. The industry actively shipped to alumina producers, but unloading rates slowed down, hindering inventory reduction. Consequently, there remains room for further decline in high-end 32% caustic soda liquid prices.
In Hebei, trends diverged within the week. In Cangzhou, low operating loads combined with large contract signings led to price stabilization and reduced local inventories; by Thursday, low-price offers gradually converged. Meanwhile, higher-priced sales in Hengshui were pressured downward by competitive low pricing from surrounding regions.
East China:
The East China caustic soda liquid market adjusted weakly but stably. Influenced by price declines in northern regions, transaction centers shifted slightly lower. With pre-holiday stocking by downstream users largely completed, new purchasing intent remained weak. Chlor-alkali enterprises focused on fulfilling existing orders. Although some units underwent maintenance and reduced loads—tightening supply—it was insufficient to accelerate destocking. Regional inventories rose slightly this week. Lacking core bullish drivers, downstream procurement remained demand-based, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere. Short-term, the East China caustic soda liquid market is expected to continue oscillating within a narrow range.
Central China:
In Henan, rotating maintenance among enterprises slightly reduced supply. Prices showed signs of weakening due to competition from Shandong shipments, though provincial inventory levels remained relatively unchanged. Chlor-alkali enterprises in Hubei entered planned maintenance, leading to reduced supply and declining provincial inventories. Overall Central China inventories decreased slightly. Currently, mainstream transactions for 32% ion-membrane alkali in Henan are priced at 1,950–2,000 CNY/ton, with high-price deals becoming less frequent.
Northwest China:
Increased chlor-alkali maintenance in the Northwest significantly reduced caustic soda liquid supply. Ningxia and Ganshuy undertook synchronized planned maintenance. Enterprises in Ningxia that had previously undergone maintenance have not yet fully resumed production, primarily consuming existing inventories. This trend has pushed Northwest caustic soda liquid prices upward, improved downstream procurement enthusiasm, and lowered regional inventories. Inner Mongolia’s 32% ion-membrane alkali price stood at 1,850 CNY/ton (converted to 100% basis), remaining flat compared to the previous period.
Southwest China:
Production in Southwest China remained stable, maintaining steady supply. Impact from external sources following maintenance in Central and Northwest China diminished. Downstream procurement enthusiasm held steady at previous levels. Chlor-alkali operating rates in Yunnan saw little change, and regional caustic soda liquid inventories remained roughly flat. The average price for 30% ion-membrane alkali in Sichuan was 750 CNY/ton.
South China:
The South China caustic soda liquid market was stable but slightly weak. Operating rates of regional chlor-alkali units remained steady, while downstream procurement willingness was low, with no concentrated restocking. Purchases were mostly based on immediate needs, limiting new order transactions. Negotiation momentum was weak, destocking was sluggish, and the region experienced inventory accumulation. Short-term improvements in market conditions appear unlikely.
Price Trends and Spread Between Flaked and Liquid Caustic Soda in China (2024–2026) (Wet Ton, CNY/ton)
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
This week, market prices in major domestic flaked caustic soda producing areas saw slight increases. Trading sentiment improved marginally, and traders’ willingness to enter the market increased notably. However, looking at current transaction atmospheres, bullish factors such as holiday-related transportation constraints and low manufacturer inventories are gradually losing effectiveness. It remains difficult for major manufacturers to push actual transaction prices higher, and the market is beginning to return to a relatively stable trend.
Alumina:
Pressure on industry profitability has not eased. However, ahead of annual long-term contract signings, most alumina plants maintain a strong willingness for stable production and supply security. Some downstream aluminum smelters believe the downside space for alumina prices is narrowing and perceive risks of large-scale production adjustments, leading to increased short-term inquiries and restocking intent. Amid an overall oversupply situation, some holders still exhibit sentiments to sell off at low prices. Additionally, buyers continue to adhere to their habit of negotiating prices downward, keeping both spot transaction and tender award prices on a downtrend. Attention should be paid to potential production cuts by certain manufacturers and the duration of their impact. Domestic alumina prices are expected to continue adjusting weakly in the short term.
Viscose Staple Fiber (VSF):
The domestic VSF market consolidated with a mildly warm tone this week. Price increases in main raw materials (dissolving pulp) and certain chemical inputs provided stronger cost support. As downstream users approach a new restocking cycle, VSF factories signed contracts and shipped goods. Industry inventories continued to remain at low levels. Supported by costs and low inventories, some factories slightly raised their price centers. However, lacking overall positive demand-side catalysts, spinning mills operate cautiously, and price centers for most VSF factories remain largely stable for now.
Supply Forecast Summary:
Liquid Caustic Soda:
Looking ahead, three chlor-alkali units in Shandong are expected to complete maintenance next Wednesday, moderately raising the industry average operating rate. However, current non-alumina demand for 32% concentration remains generally poor. Relying on concentrated shipments to alumina producers, the industry worries about subsequent price pressure. Therefore, it is estimated that high-end price ranges for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong targeting non-alumina sectors may see moderate downward adjustments next week. Short-term supply increments for 50% liquid caustic soda are likely limited. Combined with relatively low inventory bases, this will continue to support selling prices. Considering insufficient arbitrage opportunities from peripheral markets and a lack of notable export orders, 50% alkali prices are also unlikely to rise.
In East China, new maintenance additions combined with sustained low loads at previously maintained units have tightened supply, providing short-term floor support for prices. However, lacking bullish market support, enterprise shipments rely on existing orders. Domestic demand improvement is difficult in the short term, and export inquiries and new order follow-ups are insufficient, leaving the market without upward momentum. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to maintain a weak, stable adjustment.
Flaked Caustic Soda:
As holiday transportation constraints ease and the effect of relatively high manufacturer pre-sales diminishes, the domestic flaked caustic soda market is entering a phase of relative stability.
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