Is China's lint cotton market heading into a loose or tight supply year?

Is China's lint cotton market heading into a loose or tight supply year?
The balance looks comfortable on paper. Global output is strong, and China's 2025/26 ending stocks are put above 10 million tonnes, an inventory-to-consumption ratio near 125%. But the forward picture is less relaxed: Xinjiang planting area is guided down more than 10% for 2026, USDA sees Xinjiang yield slipping about 3%, and US acreage is also expected lower as growers favor soybeans. Domestic lint costs run 12-14 yuan/kg versus 8-10 in Brazil, and domestic spot sits roughly 3,950 yuan/tonne above 1%-tariff imported cotton. With a fixed 894,000-tonne quota at 1% duty and sliding duties beyond it, quota access is the real cost differentiator.