Inventory accumulation pressure intensified during the extended holiday, and acrylic acid is expected to trade within a weak range post-holiday.

Lead-in: Before the National Day holiday, acrylic acid prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a slight downward trend. While supply conditions improved, downstream inventory stocking remained insufficient. During the holiday, logistics stagnation led to expected inventory accumulation for producers. Raw material costs provided only bottom-level support. With no clear reversal drivers post-holiday, the market is expected to maintain a weak-range consolidation.

1. Production and Trade Landscape: Highly Concentrated Imports, Widely Distributed Exports

Prior to the National Day holiday, cost factors operated at high levels, but downstream buyers primarily consumed existing contract inventories, showing little willingness to restock. Consequently, acrylic acid sellers struggled to maintain prices, resulting in a narrow-range fluctuation with a slight downward bias; actual transaction centers shifted lower.

During the National Day holiday, domestic logistics halted, creating a clear expectation of inventory buildup for manufacturers and traders. The pace of downstream resumption and changes in demand will be key variables for post-holiday market performance. Overall, the market is unlikely to see a trending one-way move and will likely maintain a volatile range-bound operation for a considerable period.

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2. Bottom Support Remains, But Upward Momentum Is Limited

In the short term, international crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly during the holiday without significant gains or losses. The propylene market saw no notable fluctuations in plant operating rates during this period. Manufacturers maintained their existing operational rhythms, keeping output stable. Prior to the holiday, during the market’s upward push phase, overall factory inventories remained low and manageable. Although logistics were restricted during the holiday, smooth shipments supported by downstream pre-stocking meant that inventory pressure on enterprises was not severe.

Unless there is a sudden surge in crude oil prices, acrylic acid costs will remain relatively stable, providing bottom support for spot prices and compressing the space for deep declines. However, if raw material propylene experiences a phased pullback, it will further weaken cost support and amplify downward pressure on finished goods. Overall, costs serve primarily as defensive floor support and currently lack the momentum to drive an upward rally.

3. Sufficient Release of Effective Capacity, Highlighting Post-Holiday Inventory Pressure

From the supply side, some manufacturers began increasing load rates or adding production lines before the holiday, raising the domestic acrylic acid industry operating rate to 73.2%, leading to looser supply availability. During the National Day holiday, most acrylic acid units maintained continuous production, with only a few enterprises implementing short-term production limits. Volatility in international crude oil caused minor disturbances in raw material costs but showed no clear unilateral trend, offering limited guidance to the domestic market.

(Note: Data source "Chempricehub Information" and unit specifications are retained for context where applicable, though chart-specific captions are skipped.)

4. Moderate Recovery in Traditional End-Use Demand, Expectations for Modest Restocking Post-Holiday

Raw Material Side: The holiday period amplifies uncertainty in the crude oil market. If crude oil prices maintain high-level consolidation, bottom support for propylene feedstock costs remains intact, stabilizing the cost floor for acrylic acid. Conversely, a noticeable decline in crude oil would further erode upstream cost support. During the holiday, quotes from domestic manufacturers and holders of stock are likely to remain steady. As market sentiment warms up post-holiday, acrylic acid prices will likely continue to trade within a range.

Supply Side: During the National Day holiday, major acrylic acid units mostly maintained continuous production, with only a few enterprises limiting output temporarily. The industry’s overall capacity utilization rate dipped slightly; however, combined with pre-holiday spot inventory accumulation and additional build-up due to holiday logistics stagnation, overall market supply remains ample.

Demand Forecast: During the holiday, downstream processing enterprises, such as those producing emulsions, primarily consumed their own inventories, resulting in flat market trading activity. Post-holiday, the pace of downstream resumption will vary. Some enterprises may need to restock after depleting their inventories, suggesting a potential phased recovery in demand. However, any short-term replenishment is expected to be modest rather than explosive, making it difficult to trigger a strong upward reversal in both upstream and downstream markets.

Conclusion: In summary, acrylic acid retains bottom cost support during the holiday. On the supply side, continuous production leads to prominent inventory accumulation pressure. Downstream demand remains driven by rigid needs; while there is a possibility of moderate restocking and phased demand recovery by some enterprises post-holiday, large-scale concentrated buying lacks catalysts. Acrylic acid faces stronger bearish pressure from inventory overhang, expecting to operate within a weak range with low probability of significant rises or falls. Key focus areas moving forward include changes in cost dynamics, the progress of downstream resumption, and actual restocking behavior.