Part 1: H1 2026 Acetonitrile Industry Review and Analysis
1. Market Trend – Rose then Fell, a Bumpy Ride
In the first half of 2026, the overall volatility of the domestic acetonitrile market price expanded. Driven by the release of terminal peptide demand and phased export activities, acetonitrile prices remained above 8,500 CNY/ton on the whole during H1, peaking above 11,000 CNY/ton. As of June 30, the mainstream ex-works price in the East China market stood at 8,500 CNY/ton, up 23.2% from 6,900 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year.
Table 1: H1 2026 Acetonitrile Industry Chain Price Trend Comparison
| Item | Jan-Jun 2026 | Jan-Jun 2025 | Change | YoY Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glacial Acetic Acid | 3,069 | 2,675 | 394 | 14.73% | CNY/ton |
| Synthetic Ammonia | 2,325 | 2,404 | -79 | -3.29% | CNY/ton |
| Acetonitrile | 9,472 | 8,441 | 1,031 | 12.21% | CNY/ton |
| Acrylonitrile | 9,770 | 9,319 | 451 | 4.84% | CNY/ton |
Source: Chempricehub
Specifically, in Q1, acetonitrile prices initially rose and then fell. Prices gradually climbed in January-February, driven by a phased increase in exports ahead of the cancellation of export tax rebates effective April 1. After the concentration of export orders subsided, prices retreated with volatility in late February. In March, external conditions had not yet impacted the product, and prices oscillated between 8,500-9,000 CNY/ton. In April, acetonitrile prices surged again, with a significantly expanded range. On one hand, raw material acetic acid prices for the synthetic method rose sharply, providing strong cost support. On the other hand, by-product method enterprises underwent concentrated maintenance or reduced operating rates, leading to a supply contraction. However, this sharp rise did not last long. In May-June, as acetic acid prices rapidly fell to low levels, profit margins for synthetic method enterprises improved significantly, stimulating higher operating rates and increasing overall supply. Simultaneously, domestic demand and exports gradually weakened, causing acetonitrile prices to begin a downtrend that continued through the end of June.
2. Domestic Supply – By-product Operating Rates Declined, Synthetic Method Supply Increased Significantly
In H1 2026, domestic acetonitrile total production capacity increased to 309,700 tons/year, unchanged from the end of 2025. Total output in H1 reached 117,000 tons, up 18.18% year-on-year. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate averaged 69.6% in H1, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year.
Table 2: H1 2026 Acetonitrile Supply Data Comparison
| Item | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | YoY (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output (By-product) | 64,000 | 54,000 | 18.52% | Tons |
| Capacity Utilization (By-product) | 71% | 69% | 2.00% | % |
| Output (Synthetic) | 53,000 | 45,000 | 17.78% | Tons |
| Capacity Utilization (Synthetic) | 68% | 63% | 5.00% | % |
| Total Output | 117,000 | 99,000 | 18.18% | Tons |
| Capacity Utilization | 69.6% | 66.4% | 3.16% | % |
Source: Chempricehub
In H1 2026, the estimated output from domestic by-product acetonitrile units was 64,000 tons, up 18.52% year-on-year. The average capacity utilization rate in H1 was 71%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year. The overall output growth for by-product method was significant, primarily due to a substantial capacity increase compared to the same period last year. By the end of June, the total capacity base of by-product method enterprises had increased to 166,700 tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 11,700 tons/year.
In H1 2026, the estimated output from domestic synthetic method acetonitrile units was approximately 53,000 tons, up 17.78% year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate in H1 was around 68%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year. No new synthetic method capacity was released in H1, but overall operating rates increased notably. By the end of June, total synthetic method acetonitrile capacity remained at 143,000 tons/year.
3. Industry Profitability – Production Margins Improved
In H1 2026, the gross profit for synthetic method acetonitrile production increased. The average gross profit from January to June was 756 CNY/ton, up 516 CNY/ton year-on-year. The main factor boosting the gross profit of synthetic method acetonitrile was the increased demand for high-purity acetonitrile grades (e.g., preparative grade), resulting in favorable margins for co-production units at synthetic method enterprises.
During the same period, the raw material cost for synthetic method acetonitrile also increased. The average production cost from January to June was 8,658 CNY/ton, up 461 CNY/ton year-on-year. This was mainly due to the rise in raw material acetic acid prices. The average acetic acid price in H1 was 3,069 CNY/ton, up 14.73% year-on-year, while the average synthetic ammonia price in H1 was 2,325 CNY/ton, down 3.28% year-on-year.
Part 2: H2 2026 Acetonitrile Industry Analysis and Forecast
1. New Capacity Scheduled for Launch, Overall Acetonitrile Supply to Increase
Table 3: H2 2026 New Acetonitrile Capacity Release Plan (10,000 tons/year)
| Region | Company Abbreviation | Acrylonitrile Capacity | Acetonitrile Capacity | Commissioning Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | Zhejiang Petrochemical | 660,000 | 19,800 | September 2026 |
| North China | Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) | 130,000 | 3,900 | September 2026 |
| Northeast China | Fushun Shunneng | -- | 10,000 | Q3 2026 |
| Total | 790,000 | 33,700 |
Source: Chempricehub
In H2 2026, three new acetonitrile units are scheduled for commissioning domestically, adding a total capacity of 33,700 tons. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the total domestic acetonitrile production capacity will reach 343,400 tons/year.
2. Acetonitrile Prices Expected to Fluctuate Downward in H2, Likely with Narrower Range
Acetonitrile prices are expected to trend lower in H2 2026. The release of new capacity will exacerbate the industry's oversupply situation. However, there is an expectation that by-product method enterprises may reduce operating rates due to losses on their main product, acrylonitrile. Additionally, consumption in high-purity areas such as preparative grade is expected to maintain growth. Therefore, the downside potential for prices may be limited.
Prices are expected to gradually decline in July against the backdrop of a demand off-season, currently oscillating around 8,000 CNY/ton. In August, the market may probe for further lows, mainly due to the expected increase in by-product supply as some units that reduced operating rates or underwent maintenance plan to restart. Starting in September, new capacity will gradually come on stream, but the actual supply impact takes time. Downstream demand in high-purity areas is expected to maintain growth, and phased export growth is also anticipated. Therefore, acetonitrile prices may experience a phased rebound. In Q4, capacity releases will increase supply, weakening the positive demand factors. Competition for industrial-grade acetonitrile will intensify, and there is an expectation of a renewed decline in prices. Overall, domestic acetonitrile prices in H2 are expected to oscillate between 7,500-9,000 CNY/ton.
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