Lead-in: According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China's monthly butadiene import and export volumes both declined in June 2026, though export volumes remained at a historically high level. As concerns over potential supply risks of crude oil and naphtha intensify amid escalating military conflicts in the Middle East, demand from China's butadiene export destinations is expected to remain supported.
Changes in China's Butadiene Import Pattern (May–June)
Based on China's customs import and export data, both import and export volumes of butadiene in June declined to varying degrees, but the flow directions showed different trends. The decrease in China's butadiene imports in June was mainly due to reduced imports from Europe, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, while the volume of butadiene flowing back to China from South Korea increased. In June 2026, the top three import sources for China's butadiene were South Korea, Thailand, and Belgium, accounting for 79.82%, 16.00%, and 3.99% of imports, respectively. In terms of export destinations, most volumes continued to flow to South Korea, and exports to Taiwan (China) increased during the month. Notably, in June, China neither imported any batch volumes from Japan nor exported any substantial volumes to Japan. In June 2026, China's butadiene exports were mainly shipped to South Korea, with smaller volumes to Taiwan (China) and Turkey, accounting for 82.61%, 17.27%, and 0.11% of exports, respectively.
Changes in South Korea's Butadiene Import and Export Flows (May–June)
According to import and export data under South Korea's Customs HS code 290124, South Korea's import volumes continued to decline from April to June, while export volumes rebounded significantly. Statistics under South Korea's Customs tariff code 290124 show that in June 2026, South Korea's import volume dropped sharply to 39,161.00 metric tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13,662.60 metric tons, or 25.87%, while export volume increased substantially to 31,115.90 metric tons, a month-on-month increase of 7,164.7 metric tons, or 29.91%. In addition, net imports fell sharply from 28,872.40 metric tons in May to 8,045.10 metric tons in June.
Table 1: Comparison of South Korea's Import Data under HS Code 290124 (May–June 2026) (Unit: Metric Tons)
| Import Source | June 2026 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 20,768.10 | 30,712.10 | -9,944.00 |
| India | 8,796.10 | 4,901.00 | 3,895.10 |
| Brazil | 7,636.10 | 0.00 | 7,636.10 |
| Thailand | 1,960.70 | 0.00 | 1,960.70 |
| Netherlands | 0.00 | 12,551.90 | -12,551.90 |
| Indonesia | 0.00 | 2,855.60 | -2,855.60 |
| France | 0.00 | 1,803.00 | -1,803.00 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 39,161.00 | 52,823.60 | -13,662.60 |
From South Korea's import and export data under HS code 290124, the overall import volume in June showed a gradual decline, but the structure of import sources changed significantly. Imports from Europe essentially dropped to zero, and imports from China also fell markedly. Considering that China's June import data also showed a clear reduction in European imports, this reflects the closure of the arbitrage window for European resources to Asia as Asian market prices continued to decline in May–June, and also partially reflects South Korea's significantly reduced concern over short-term resource supply tightness after earlier concentrated procurement replenishment.
Table 2: Comparison of South Korea's Export Data under HS Code 290124 (May–June 2026) (Unit: Metric Tons)
| Export Destination | June 2026 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 13,419.50 | 7,775.60 | 5,643.90 |
| China | 12,002.70 | 7,127.80 | 4,874.90 |
| United States | 3,403.20 | 2,250.40 | 1,152.80 |
| Taiwan (China) | 2,005.30 | 6,077.50 | -4,072.20 |
| United Kingdom | 225.20 | 225.00 | 0.20 |
| Singapore | 60.00 | 0.00 | 60.00 |
| Brazil | 0.00 | 345.00 | -345.00 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.00 | 149.90 | -149.90 |
| Total | 31,115.90 | 23,951.20 | 7,164.70 |
Looking at the export flow destinations under South Korea's HS code 290124 in June, besides a further increase in butadiene flowing back from South Korea to China, procurement of South Korean butadiene by Japan also rose significantly. Although Japan's customs has not yet released its June import and export data, data from January to May 2026 indicates that Japan's butadiene import supply channels are highly dependent on South Korea, with a small amount supplemented by China. Given that South Korea and China together account for over 80% of Japan's butadiene import structure, against the backdrop of heightened Middle East conflicts affecting crude oil and naphtha supply, Japan is expected to continue needing import supply replenishment. However, it should be noted that the redistribution of earlier low-priced European and American cargoes arriving in Asia may partially ease market concerns over potential supply gaps. Additionally, as Asian market prices gradually rise, the arbitrage window for European exports to Asia may open.
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