Imports have become incidental, with price differentials serving as the primary reference factor for toluene imports.

【Introduction】: Currently, China's toluene imports have completely shifted away from demand-driven fundamentals to a model dominated by speculative profit-taking. There are no long-term contract import volumes in the market. Looking back at 2026, against the backdrop of intensifying domestic supply-demand contradictions, the opening of arbitrage windows has become more random. Imports exhibit clear opportunistic characteristics, making it difficult to establish stable seasonal patterns or predictable arrival schedules.

1. Analysis of the Relationship Between Toluene Import Volume and Price

In terms of average import prices, trends align with domestic market price movements. Import cargo prices are significantly influenced by domestic market conditions but also maintain a strong correlation with overseas supply and demand fundamentals, such as those in the United States.

2. Analysis of Toluene Import Structure

In 2026, China's general trade import volume was 0.2 ten-thousand tons, accounting for 100% of total imports. No statistics were available for other trade methods.

Table 1: Statistics on China's Toluene Imports by Trade Method (2021-2026) (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Domestic toluene imports are primarily conducted through general trade, which has consistently accounted for over 99% of the total between 2021 and 2026. This is mainly driven by intermediaries engaging in speculative imports to generate profits.

In 2026, Zhejiang Province led the nation with 0.19 ten-thousand tons of toluene imports. Import volumes from other provinces were negligible.

Between 2021 and 2026, the domestic toluene import market exhibited stark contrasts in both regional distribution and total scale.

Regionally, import destinations have continued to concentrate in East China. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai have long held top positions nationwide, with Zhejiang maintaining an absolutely dominant role. The primary reason is that East China features dense downstream demand and convenient port customs clearance, naturally attracting production and trading enterprises to cluster there.

In terms of total volume, the import scale experienced structural contraction in 2026, dropping significantly compared to 2025. Tracing the root cause, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East triggered tight upstream raw material supplies, directly suppressing operating rates of facilities in Japan, South Korea, and other regions. Consequently, the circulation volume of toluene with cross-border arbitrage value declined sharply. With the narrowing of routine arbitrage windows and scarce operable cargo sources, importers' behavioral models shifted from previous large-scale, planned, steady procurement to opportunistic games relying on short-lived price windows, clearly enhancing the speculative nature of import operations.

Table 2: Analysis of China's Toluene Imports by Country/Region of Origin (2021-2026) (Unit: 10,000 tons)

3. Market Outlook

China's toluene imports have entered the final stage of structural contraction. In 2027, import volumes are likely to remain low or even approach zero, with imports degenerating from a regular supply source to occasional marginal supplementation. South Korea will become almost the sole stable source country. Sources like Japan and Taiwan, China, once reduced to zero, are unlikely to recover. The concentration of import sources will rise to extreme levels, paradoxically reducing supply chain resilience.

Import ports will further concentrate on single storage areas in Jiangsu, with foreign trade functions in other regions essentially exiting. Jiangsu will become the only window for observing domestic toluene foreign trade activities. Importer behavior will shift entirely to opportunistic games; subsequent import volumes will highly depend on phase-specific price spreads and geopolitical disturbances, exhibiting pulse-like and unpredictable characteristics. Consequently, pricing power for domestic toluene will return further to domestic facilities and internal trade circulation. The marginal impact of imports on prices will weaken significantly, and whether arbitrage windows open will become the sole driver determining if imports occur.