Hydrogenated Benzene Prices Surge to Historic Highs Amid Volatile Upward Trend (October 2026)

1. Key Highlights of the Month

① Domestic hydrogenated benzene production in October totaled 345,100 tons, up 3.98% month-on-month (MoM).

② Profit margins for hydrogenated benzene enterprises in Shandong reached 469.5 CNY/ton in October, a MoM increase of 773.12%.

③ Domestic demand for hydrogenated benzene was 2.611 million tons in October, up 3.08% MoM.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Monthly Price Summary for Hydrogenated Benzene and Related Products

Unit: CNY/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The hydrogenated benzene market in Shandong exhibited an overall trend of rising to new highs followed by a narrow decline from elevated levels in October. The mainstream transaction range shifted upward from 10,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to a mid-month peak of 10,560 CNY/ton, before falling back to 10,100–10,200 CNY/ton in the latter part of the month.

During the National Day holiday, the market was closed. Factories primarily executed pre-holiday orders, having already sold two weeks' worth of inventory prior to the break. On the first day after the holiday, pure benzene and styrene futures hit their upper limit simultaneously due to resonance effects. Hydrogenated benzene opened higher with strong momentum, pushing prices to 10,000–10,400 CNY/ton. In mid-October, the market entered a phase of high-frequency oscillation at elevated levels, characterized by repeated "rise-fall-rise-fall" cycles. Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, while declining inventories at East China ports and tight circulation of pure benzene supply (with East China pure benzene breaking through 11,000 CNY/ton and widening the price gap with northern regions) supported prices reaching historic highs. Conversely, when futures markets were closed and lacked directional guidance, downstream users exerted joint pressure on prices based on essential demand, and declines in crude oil and aromatics futures indices weighed on prices, significantly intensifying volatility. In late October, the market oscillated downward from high levels. Geopolitical news and fluctuations in crude oil futures repeatedly disrupted sentiment in both pure benzene futures and spot markets. Hydrogenated benzene declined narrowly but briefly rebounded after stabilizing.

Overall, this month's price movements were dominated by crude oil and pure benzene futures markets, while spot liquidity and downstream absorption capacity determined the magnitude of volatility.

3. Next Month Market Forecast

In November, domestic hydrogenated benzene prices are expected to rise amid high-level oscillations, with the mainstream fluctuation range projected between 10,000 and 11,000 CNY/ton.

Cost-side support remains strong. There is still upside potential for crude oil prices: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain broadly tense, with continued stalemate between the US and Iran, and persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to fully ease in the short term, establishing a strong floor for oil prices. WTI is forecast to trade within 95–108 USD/barrel, and Brent within 109–122 USD/barrel.

From a fundamental perspective, pure benzene imports into China are expected to increase in November. While both domestic supply and demand will grow, the increment in supply will exceed the increment in downstream demand. Pure benzene port inventories in East China are predicted to first drop to relatively low levels before shifting toward slight accumulation.

Comprehensively, international oil prices remain the core variable influencing pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene prices. Although oil prices retain upward potential in November, the domestic supply gap for pure benzene is expected to narrow. Consequently, pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene prices are anticipated to primarily exhibit rising trends amidst oscillations. It is recommended to closely monitor crude oil trends and changes in East China port inventories.

Key Points for Next Issue:

① Track geopolitical developments involving the US-Iran situation, Houthi-Saudi conflicts, and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Pay particular attention to US-Iran negotiations to capture inflection points in geopolitical risk.

② Monitor changes in major downstream units and their impact on the hydrogenated benzene market.

③ Observe profit margins and operating rates in the coking industry and the hydrogenated benzene sector.

For more monthly market analyses, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Hydrogenated Benzene Monthly Report.