How will China's maleic anhydride supply-demand balance evolve through 2025?

China's maleic anhydride market has moved from oversupply to a tighter balance, driven by policy and demand shifts. After years of surplus—exacerbated by weak downstream resin demand and trade tensions—the market found new momentum around 2020 as biodegradable plastics policies boosted PBAT demand, a key MA derivative. By 2024, China's MA output reached 1.409 million tons, with exports at 198,000 tons and apparent demand of 1.212 million tons. The market size grew to 8.379 billion yuan, up 1.06 billion from 2023. Capacity additions, notably Dalian Hengli's 840,000-ton unit, have made China the world's largest producer. However, the demand side is evolving: traditional UPR growth is moderate, but biodegradable plastics and high-tech applications in electronics and automotive are creating new consumption pillars. This dual dynamic—capacity expansion plus demand diversification—suggests a market where margins depend on downstream innovation as much as feedstock costs.