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How fast is China's polybutene-1 demand growing and where does 1-butene fit in?

Hannah Berg
Published on 2026-08-27

How fast is China's polybutene-1 demand growing and where does 1-butene fit in?
Polybutene-1, made by polymerizing 1-butene, is the highest-value outlet for the monomer and carries the nickname plastic gold. Global PB-1 capacity sits near 250,000 tonnes per year, concentrated in the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and China, with output and consumption both around 150,000 tonnes. Demand is forecast to exceed 200,000 tonnes by 2025, and growth is expected to come mainly from emerging markets led by China. Roughly 90 percent of PB-1 goes into pipe, with films taking about 6 percent as a blend component. China's own PB-1 capacity remains small at about 18,000 tonnes, and high-end grades are still imported, so the pull-through benefit for 1-butene is real but not yet large.

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  • Marcus Hayes 2026-08-28 21:05
    Watch the pipe segment rather than films. Hot-water pipe specifications favor high-isotacticity homopolymer, which is exactly the grade where domestic technology is least mature. Until Chinese producers stabilize continuous output at that quality, PB-1 will absorb 1-butene only in modest volumes, and the import substitution story stays a medium-term theme.
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