How does Iran's strontium ore supply disruption affect the global strontium carbonate market?

How does Iran's strontium ore supply disruption affect the global strontium carbonate market?
Iran is a critical source of high-grade celestite ore, with grades above 85%, far exceeding China's domestic ore at 35-60%. China imports roughly 45% of its celestite from Iran. Recent geopolitical tensions and port incidents have disrupted Iranian ore shipments, creating a feedstock bottleneck. Chinese producers like RedStar Development have self-sufficiency in ore from their Chongqing mines, but Jinrui Mining relies heavily on purchased ore. The cost of celestite represents 60-70% of strontium carbonate production costs. With Iran supply interrupted, producers are drawing down pre-conflict ore inventories, and profit margins per tonne have expanded from 14.3% to 30-40% since March 2025. Analysts project that if the disruption persists through 2026, standard-grade strontium carbonate could exceed 50,000 yuan/ton, given China's effective capacity of 160,000 tonnes versus demand of 200,000 tonnes, and a global supply gap of 25%.