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1. Key Focus Today

① Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction started at RMB 3,230/ton for a volume of 3,000 tons; the lot was partially sold at this price.
② Zhongyuan Dahua's 500,000-ton/year methanol unit shut down on October 29.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Figure 1: 2026 Methanol Price Trend by Key Region (RMB/ton)]
[Figure 2: 2025-2026 Methanol Downstream Price Trend (RMB/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Daily Commentary: The domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,463.61 today (+0.83). Specifically, Taicang spot prices were at 3,905 (-10), and Inner Mongolia North Line prices were at 3,262.5 (+25). According to Chempricehub's monitoring of 20 major cities, prices declined in 10 cities by varying degrees, ranging from 10 to 75 RMB/ton. Overall trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market shifted noticeably today. Intraday futures initially rose then fell before consolidating at high levels. Near-month contracts saw demand-driven follow-through, basis narrowed slightly, while far-month contracts remained relatively strong. Market participants closely monitored the transmission of commodity futures fluctuations to the spot market. The inland market was weak in the morning but strengthened in the afternoon as downstream bidding prices in Northern Shandong were released, reigniting buying interest. In the short term, given that supply-demand contradictions are not significant, the market is expected to consolidate with a slight upward bias. Additionally, continue to monitor the impact of operational changes at certain domestic methanol projects.

3. Basis

[Figure 3: 2026 Methanol Basis Trend (RMB/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In the afternoon, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,405 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,558 RMB/ton, and a low of 3,396 RMB/ton, closing at 3,480 RMB/ton, up 49 RMB/ton from the previous day's settlement. By close, open interest for MA2701 stood at 881,200 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Overall trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market changed significantly today. Intraday futures initially rose then fell before consolidating at high levels. Near-month contracts saw demand-driven follow-through, basis narrowed slightly, while far-month contracts remained relatively strong. Participants closely monitored the transmission of commodity futures fluctuations to the spot market. The inland market was weak in the morning but strengthened in the afternoon as downstream bidding prices in Northern Shandong were released, reigniting buying interest. In the short term, given that supply-demand contradictions are not significant, the market is expected to consolidate with a slight upward bias. Additionally, continue to monitor the impact of operational changes at certain domestic methanol projects.

7. In the medium-to-long term, supply in the inland methanol spot market remains relatively loose, while tightness persists in coastal areas, driving methanol prices to oscillate at high levels. Key variables to watch include expectations for new capacity startup and impacts from imported arrivals.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: Prices in northern markets remained relatively stable today, while quotes in East China shifted lower, leading to a downward price trend. Overall trading activity was moderate. Attention should be paid to downstream purchasing intensity. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may experience localized narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market declined slightly today. As feedstock methanol weakened, factories adjusted prices downward marginally due to reduced cost pressure. Buying interest from downstream wood panel producers softened, with most focusing on fulfilling existing orders. Chempricehub forecasts that the formaldehyde market will likely trade weakly with fluctuations in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market remained steady today. With the restart of the Chongqing Wansheng plant, supply tightness eased, allowing for orderly purchases. Other regions nationwide also maintained stability. Chempricehub forecasts limited volatility in the DME market in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.