High Production Costs Support Domestic n-Butanol Prices at Elevated Levels (Oct 9–15, 2026)

1. Weekly Market Focus

1. Production: The operating rate of n-butanol was 88%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 59,900 tons.

2. Demand: The capacity utilization rate for butyl acrylate was 61.26% (output: 54,500 tons); for butyl acetate, it was 56.17% (output: 17,200 tons); and for dibutyl phthalate (DBP), it was 38.56% (output: 8,500 tons).

2. Weekly Price Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub
(Unit: CNY/ton)

During this period, the price center of domestic n-butanol rose significantly. Following the short holiday, feedstock propylene prices surged consecutively, providing strong cost support that drove market prices upward. Meanwhile, units undergoing maintenance before the holiday had not resumed operations as scheduled, limiting market supply. The sharp rise in raw material costs not only increased production expenses but also stimulated downstream buyers to secure shipments at relatively lower levels, leading to improved inquiries and transaction volumes. As low-priced offers disappeared, trading activity centered on higher price ranges. Towards the end of the week, although n-butanol prices remained high, downstream resistance to elevated prices grew, weakening purchasing intent. Some producers offered discounts to stimulate sales, resulting in a slight downward drift in the price center.

3. Market Influencing Factors

1. Increased downstream operating rates have ensured ample n-butanol supply.

2. The average weekly profit for n-butanol was 8,363 CNY/ton, an increase of 183 CNY/ton compared to the previous period.

3. China's n-butanol output reached 59,900 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons (2.92%) from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate stood at approximately 88%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

5. Supply: Some units are expected to reduce their operating rates next week, leading to a decrease in supply volume.

6. Demand: Operating rates across the three major downstream sectors are expected to rise, suggesting an increase in demand compared to this week.

7. Cost: The propylene market is expected to trade weakly at high levels, implying a potential decline in n-butanol production costs.

Overall, while some existing units may reduce loads and new capacities are still anticipated to come online, the domestic n-butanol market remains sufficiently supplied, characterized by an oversupply situation. However, operating rates in the three key downstream industries are expected to improve, particularly for butyl acrylate and butyl acetate, leading to a slow but steady rise in production demand. Regarding cost and profit, although propylene prices may see some softening, they remain at high levels, continuing to provide cost support for n-butanol prices. Therefore, the domestic n-butanol market price is predicted to fluctuate weakly next week.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Butanols & Octanols Weekly Report.