① Sustained strengthening of cost support and profit compression driving price increases.
② Resonance between tight supply and recovering demand pushing prices to year-to-date highs.
In September, the domestic aniline market trended upward with fluctuations, with transaction centers gradually rising to new year-to-date highs. At the beginning of the month, the market continued to rise, but the magnitude of the increase narrowed significantly. After price hikes, some downstream users showed resistance to high-priced raw materials, leading to a phased slowdown in procurement pace. Subsequently, sellers proactively offered discounts to promote shipments; however, downstream users maintained a wait-and-see attitude with weak buying sentiment. Nevertheless, as pure benzene strengthened alongside crude oil, aniline profitability contracted noticeably. Enhanced cost support combined with compressed profits shifted market sentiment from discounting for volume to pushing prices up due to cost pressure. Starting mid-month, under the combined effects of sustained cost support and stable consumption from scheduled export withdrawals, spot supply turned tight, causing transaction centers to rise again. Entering late September, the dual resonance of costs and demand accelerated the market's upward movement. On the supply side, limited salable aniline volumes were available due to the imminent maintenance shutdown at Jinling by month-end and low inventory levels among most sellers. On the demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling led to a clear recovery in demand, pushing transaction centers to new year-to-date highs.
Comparison Table of Regional Price Changes in China
Unit: CNY/ton
| Region | Current Period Average Price | Previous Period Average Price | Same Period Last Year | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 13802 | 12453 | 7730 | 10.83% | 78.55% |
| North China | 13707 | 12329 | 7646 | 11.18% | 79.27% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
▲ Aniline production capacity utilization rose this month. The domestic aniline capacity utilization rate reached 84.15%, an increase of 7.15 percentage points compared to the previous period and 8.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Three plants underwent shutdowns during the month, involving a total annual processing capacity of 750,000 tons.
▲ Maintenance-related losses during the month totaled 32,200 tons, a decrease of 40,400 tons month-on-month (a change of -55.65%) and a decrease of 7,200 tons year-on-year (a change of -18.27%).
Looking ahead to next month, if multiple planned maintenance shutdowns proceed as scheduled, aniline spot supply in October is expected to maintain a tight balance. According to market news, Sinopec Nanjing Chemical’s Zhangzhou plant (300,000-ton capacity) is expected to commence production after the National Day holiday. Industry output in October may rise following Wanhua Chemical’s full resumption of operations and the startup of the Nanjing Chemical Zhangzhou plant. If the new unit achieves stable production within the month, supply in October is expected to shift towards a looser pattern. Regarding demand, no downstream maintenance plans have been reported domestically, while export demand is expected to decline, leading to an overall decrease in demand and a shift in the supply-demand gap from negative to positive. On the cost front, pure benzene prices are expected to start low and move higher in October, providing solid cost support. Aniline prices are projected to consolidate in the range of 14,000–15,000 CNY/ton in October.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Aniline Monthly Report.
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