H1 2026 DOP Market Review and Outlook

Introduction:
In the first half of the year, DOP market prices experienced a surge followed by a decline, with wide price fluctuations driving higher profitability. However, demand degradation occurred earlier than expected as market players sought to avoid high costs and inventory pressure. Domestic supply saw a slight decrease. As external influencing factors subsided, price influences ultimately returned to being dominated by supply-demand fundamentals.

Table: DOP Data Overview for H1 2026 (10,000 tons, CNY/ton)

Source: chempricehub

DOP Prices Fluctuated Widely, Profitability Increased

At the beginning of the year, DOP market demand improved moderately. Driven by the removal of tax rebates on April 1, export orders for some downstream sectors increased, leading to higher buying interest and a temporary supply shortage. Coupled with rising octanol prices, DOP prices moved upward. However, as high-priced buying support weakened, prices softened again.

In March, geopolitical factors triggered a sharp price increase, pushing DOP to 10,700 CNY/ton, a two-year high. The gap from the low of 7,350 CNY/ton widened to 3,350 CNY/ton. End users, supported by earlier orders, continued to purchase on a need-to-buy basis, keeping market profitability at elevated levels, with sample market profits reaching up to 760 CNY/ton. However, as raw material prices remained high and new orders declined, DOP demand began to drop in mid-April. Lacking support from high-level demand, prices started to fall.

Driven by multiple factors including eased geopolitical tensions, falling crude oil prices, and increased supply of octanol leading to price declines, DOP market declines accelerated, and profitability rapidly shrank. By June, terminal consumption entered the off-season, with insufficient positive factors and a lack of buying support. DOP market participants took profits, and by late June, the market quickly moved into a loss-making zone, with sample market losses reaching up to 356 CNY/ton.

Increased Exports Could Not Offset Domestic Demand Pressure; DOP Production Declined

As of May, China's cumulative DOP exports for the year stood at 70,800 tons, up 8.59% year-on-year. H1 exports are expected to reach 85,000 tons or more. Although export volumes increased, the year-on-year increase was only about 10,000 tons, insufficient to offset the pressure from declining domestic demand. To cope with falling demand and avoid inventory pressure, DOP plants increased production cuts and short-term shutdowns from April to June, with monthly maintenance losses exceeding 20,000 tons. H1 DOP production dropped to 684,400 tons, down 5.86% from H2 2025 and 6.25% year-on-year. The average capacity utilization rate was 58%, with the lowest point in late June at 44%, even lower than during the Chinese New Year holiday period.

Awaiting Demand Recovery; DOP Faces Continued Pressure in the Short Term

From a supply-demand perspective, the second half of the year sees the expected commissioning of the Guangdong Lingchuang plant. If it operates smoothly, DOP production in H2 is expected to increase. During July-August, most DOP plants plan to cut production, with many units likely operating at 50-70% capacity. Q3 output may remain relatively low, while Q4 output is expected to see a boost from increased production. Additionally, the market is in a consumption off-season, with domestic demand remaining at a restocking level. Rising ocean freight rates increase export costs and may delay the shipment progress of some new export orders. Whether export orders will recover in Q4 remains to be seen.

From a cost perspective, in the short term, the octanol market has ample spot supply, and prices still have room to decline, pending signs of a bottom and transaction pickup. The phthalic anhydride market sees high costs, awaiting raw material price concessions. DOP market cost trends are expected to first decline and then rise.

Overall, current DOP market end-users have low operating rates, lacking demand-side support. The export market only partially alleviates local supply pressure. In the short term, demand continues to influence price performance, and DOP market prices are likely to remain under pressure. In Q4, the market may see a rebound if demand recovers.