Geopolitical sentiment remains volatile, and price differentials within the port region continue to widen.

1. Today's Key Points

① Hebi Coal Chemical held a methanol auction for 3,003 tons with a starting price of CNY 3,485/ton (ex-factory, cash on delivery). The entire volume was sold at CNY 3,555/ton (ex-factory, cash on delivery).

② Acetic Acid: Hebei Jiantao’s Phase I unit (600,000 tons/year) is scheduled for maintenance after the National Day holiday, lasting one week.

2. Today’s Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Figure 1: 2026 Methanol Price Trend by Key Region (CNY/ton)]
[Figure 2: 2025-2026 Methanol Key Downstream Price Trend (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Daily Commentary: Today’s methanol spot price index stood at 3,581.31 (+4.74). Specifically, Taicang spot prices rose to 4,255 (+165), while Inner Mongolia North Line prices fell to 3,335 (-40). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices increased in eight cities by varying degrees, ranging from CNY 45 to 165 per ton. The domestic methanol market sentiment heated up again in the afternoon. Unsuccessful US-Iran negotiations prompted market participants to reassess conditions. Against the backdrop of low imports at coastal ports, liquidity tightness persisted, causing port basis levels to strengthen throughout the day. In inland regions, driven by continued downstream stockpiling before the holiday and sustained strength at ports, most enterprises saw auctions close at premium prices. Currently, the price gap between inland and port regions has widened significantly. Attention should be paid to whether this trend continues and the practical feasibility of inter-regional arbitrage.

3. Basis

[Figure 3: 2026 Methanol Basis Trend (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures fluctuated upward. The MA2610 contract opened at CNY 3,388/ton, reached a high of CNY 3,423/ton, and a low of CNY 3,366/ton, closing at CNY 3,412/ton, an increase of CNY 10/ton from the previous settlement. As of the close, open interest for the MA2609 contract was 164,100 lots, a decrease of 35,200 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Domestic methanol market sentiment heated up again in the afternoon today. Unsuccessful US-Iran negotiations have led industry players to reassess the situation. With low import volumes at coastal ports, tight liquidity remains a reality, and port basis levels strengthened further throughout the day. In inland areas, supported by pre-holiday downstream stockpiling and sustained strength at ports, many enterprises closed auctions at premium prices in the afternoon. The price gap between inland and port regions has widened significantly. Monitor whether this trend persists and evaluate the practical feasibility of future inter-regional arbitrage.

7. In the medium to long term, as previously maintained methanol plants gradually restart, the tight spot supply situation domestically has eased somewhat. However, inventory levels at most downstream users remain unsatisfactory, leading to continued replenishment purchases recently. Consequently, the decline in methanol market prices has been relatively limited. Watch for the recovery status of methanol plant units and the degree of reduction in downstream demand to determine if support can be sustained.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today, glacial acetic acid market prices remained mostly stable, with only Northwest factories raising prices by CNY 100/ton. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, factory shipments continue smoothly, while downstream users purchase mainly based on immediate needs. Chempricehub expects short-term glacial acetic acid market prices to trend higher.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market consolidated within a range. Feedstock methanol experienced minor fluctuations, providing strong cost support. Factories maintained stable prices and ordered shipments, with good willingness from downstream buyers within the market, resulting in smooth transactions and no inventory pressure on factories before the holiday. Chempricehub expects the short-term formaldehyde market to trade sideways.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market operated steadily. Factory units ran smoothly ahead of the holiday, focusing on selling existing inventories. Industrial downstream users made small-volume purchases based on rigid demand. Inquiry activity within the market was good, but transaction volumes were average. Chempricehub expects the short-term DME market to consolidate with a slightly bullish bias.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data points with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data points with changes within 0–3%.