Geopolitical sentiment has cooled, with methanol futures driving a decline in spot prices.

1. Key Focus Points

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin's methanol auction started at 3,260 CNY/ton with a volume of 5,000 tons. The entire lot was sold at prices ranging from 3,260 to 3,265 CNY/ton.

② Enn Group's Phase I project in Inner Mongolia (600,000 tons/year coal-to-methanol) restarted ignition today (September 23). Attention should be paid to product output in the latter half of the week. This unit has been undergoing planned maintenance since September 4. Additionally, the Phase II project (600,000 tons/year methanol) has been shut down since July 1, with the specific restart date yet to be determined.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Today's Commentary] Today's domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,576.57, down by 11.54. Specifically, the Taicang spot price fell by 35 to 4,090, while the Inner Mongolia North Line price dropped by 5 to 3,375. According to Chempricehub monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 11 cities experienced declines ranging from 5 to 60 CNY/ton. The overall market sentiment for domestic methanol weakened today. Signs of easing geopolitical tensions emerged, with reports that some vessels in the Middle East are gradually departing. Consequently, intraday futures prices plunged sharply, port basis levels narrowed rapidly, and buyers largely adopted a wait-and-see approach. Trading activity in inland regions also softened, with afternoon trade transfers continuing to decline amidst cautious market sentiment. In the short term, against the backdrop of diminishing geopolitical factors, there is a risk of high-level commodity price corrections. Investors should closely monitor changes in arbitrage opportunities between inland regions and ports.

3. Basis

Afternoon trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange saw methanol futures fluctuate downwards. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,441 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,462 CNY/ton and a low of 3,340 CNY/ton, closing at 3,349 CNY/ton. This represents a decrease of 113 CNY/ton compared to the previous session's settlement price. As of the close, open interest for the MA2609 contract stood at 199,300 lots, a reduction of 93,300 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Production Dynamics for Methanol and Downstream Products

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Overall market sentiment for domestic methanol weakened today due to signs of easing geopolitical tensions. Reports indicate that some vessels in the Middle East are gradually departing, leading to a sharp intraday drop in futures prices and a rapid narrowing of port basis levels. Buyers have largely shifted to a wait-and-see stance. Trading activity in inland regions also softened, with afternoon trade transfers declining amidst cautious sentiment. In the short term, with geopolitical factors waning, there is a risk of price corrections from current highs. Close attention should be paid to changes in arbitrage spaces between inland areas and ports.

7. In the medium to long term, as previously maintained methanol plants resume operations, the tight supply situation for domestic methanol spot goods has eased somewhat. However, inventory levels for most downstream products remain unoptimistic, prompting continued restocking purchases. Consequently, the decline in methanol market prices has been relatively limited. Market participants should observe the recovery status of methanol production units and the degree of demand reduction among downstream users to determine if support levels can be sustained.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Industry Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Product Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Prices continued their upward trend today. Factory prices were raised again, with the market following suit. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, downstream stocking enthusiasm increased. Factory shipments improved compared to yesterday. Market psychology remains a key focus. Chempricehub forecasts that glacial acetic acid prices will maintain an upward trajectory in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market stabilized and consolidated today, with minor increases in certain regions. Most local plants are operating steadily. Supported by low inventories, some premium prices continued to rise slightly. Approaching the holiday period, downstream wood panel industries in main production and consumption areas are entering their restocking cycle. Transaction volumes remained smooth, and supply is gradually tightening. Chempricehub predicts that the formaldehyde market will consolidate with a bullish bias in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market remained stable today. Limited fluctuations in costs had little impact on DME prices. Supply within the market remained ample. Traders held steady prices and shipped orders in an orderly manner. Negotiations among traders were quiet, and transaction volumes were average. Chempricehub expects the DME market to move sideways in consolidation over the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data points with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data points with changes within 0–3%.