Futures rebounded and then pulled back, with divergent price movements between port areas and inland regions.

1. Today's Key Focus Points

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin set a starting auction price for methanol at 3,220 CNY/ton today with a volume of 6,000 tons. Ultimately, 700 tons were traded at this price, while the remainder failed to sell (auctioned off).

② Yulin Yankuang set a starting auction price for methanol at 3,230 CNY/ton today with a volume of 6,000 tons. The entire quantity was successfully traded at 3,230 CNY/ton.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Today's Commentary] Today, the domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,430.46, down by 5.02. Specifically, the Taicang spot price rose by 80 to 3,795, while the Inner Mongolia North Line price fell by 27.5 to 3,240. According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices increased in 9 cities by varying degrees, ranging from 15 to 110 CNY/ton. The domestic methanol market continued its tense and stagnant pace today. Futures prices saw a slight intraday surge followed by a significant afternoon decline. Currently, commodity volatility patterns remain emotionally driven by developments in US-Iran relations. Port-based prices generally trended higher during the day, while the basis showed initial strength followed by weakness. Market participants continue to closely monitor progress in US-Iran negotiations. New offers in inland regions such as Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong were mostly lowered due to weak sentiment. Traditional downstream demand is weakening, engaging in continuous tug-of-war with increasing olefin demand. Overall buying and selling activities remain relatively deadlocked. In the short term, various markets are expected to undergo regionalized oscillating adjustments based on their own supply and demand dynamics.

3. Basis Analysis

Afternoon trading saw Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures fluctuate and retreat. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,235 CNY/ton, hit a high of 3,289 CNY/ton and a low of 3,186 CNY/ton, closing at 3,194 CNY/ton, which was 17 CNY/ton lower than the previous session's settlement price. By the close, open interest for the MA2701 contract reached 872,500 lots, an increase of 12,600 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. The domestic methanol market maintained a tense and stagnant pace today. Futures prices surged slightly intraday before dropping significantly in the afternoon. Current commodity volatility remains influenced by emotional reactions to US-Iran geopolitical developments. Port prices generally trended upward during the day, while the basis weakened after initial strength. Attention remains focused on the progress of US-Iran negotiations. New offers in inland areas like Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong were largely lowered amid weak sentiment. Weakening traditional downstream demand is currently competing with growing olefin demand. Overall trading activity remains relatively deadlocked. In the short term, markets are expected to experience regionalized oscillations driven by local supply and demand fundamentals.

7. In the medium-to-long term, inland methanol spot supply remains relatively loose, while coastal spot supply continues to be tight, keeping methanol prices oscillating at high levels. Key variables to watch include expectations for new plant startups and the impact of imported cargo arrivals.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Domestic Methanol Stakeholder Sentiment Expectations

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Factory prices remained stable over the weekend but declined today, with the broader market following suit. Enterprise inventory fluctuations were minimal overall; however, constrained by average downstream purchasing enthusiasm, transactions were primarily based on immediate needs or long-term contracts. Trading atmosphere remained thin. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market center shifted lower today. Costs strengthened due to rising methanol feedstock prices, but many mainstream downstream man-made board factories suspended operations due to environmental regulations, limiting demand support for formaldehyde. To protect inventory levels, factories prioritized offering discounts to move goods. Chempricehub forecasts that the formaldehyde market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market operated steadily today. Strengthening methanol feedstock prices increased cost pressures. Most holders maintained stable prices for orderly sales, while trade and downstream entry enthusiasm remained average, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Chempricehub forecasts that the DME market will consolidate within a range in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Note:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes between 0-3%.