Fundamental Bull-Bear Tug-of-War Leads to Price Consolidation (Sep 25–30, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Week

① Sinopec raised its listed price for pure benzene by 300 RMB/ton to 10,200 RMB/ton, further escalating cost pressures on caprolactam.
② Caprolactam supply remains loose, and downstream procurement is cautious, constraining prices.
③ Weekly caprolactam production reached 124,300 tons, while PA6 chip production was 116,300 tons. Nylon filament operating rates stood at 67%.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

During this period (September 25–30, 2026), the domestic caprolactam market stabilized after a decline. The average spot price in East China was 13,800 RMB/ton, down 2.39% week-on-week. On September 30, the East China spot price remained at 13,800 RMB/ton (acceptance payment, delivered).

The market experienced conflicting bullish and bearish forces. Upstream pure benzene prices continued to rise due to month-end delivery logic, with spot prices increasing significantly; Sinopec’s listed pure benzene price rose by 300 RMB/ton to 10,200 RMB/ton, maintaining high cost pressure for caprolactam. However, recent caprolactam supply has been ample, creating significant pre-holiday sales pressure for spot goods. Additionally, downstream polymerization procurement pace has slowed. Despite rising costs, weak supply-demand support has left prices in a dilemma, unable to clearly trend up or down. As of Wednesday, the East China spot price held steady at 13,800 RMB/ton (acceptance payment, delivered).

Domestic Caprolactam Price Change Comparison Table (Unit: RMB/ton)

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. This period, the gross margin for caprolactam production was -2,584 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1,149 RMB/ton from the previous period. The gross margin for caprolactam units was -927 RMB/ton, down 1,114 RMB/ton from the previous period.
2. Caprolactam production totaled 124,300 tons this period, an increase of 3,100 tons compared to the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 71.64%, up 1.78 percentage points from the previous period.
3. Caprolactam inventory levels were 37,500 tons this period, an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the previous period.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

The caprolactam market is expected to remain characterized by mixed bullish and bearish factors in the coming period. Key areas of focus include:

1. Cost Side: Pure benzene listed prices remain firm, suggesting that caprolactam costs will continue to stay strong, providing supportive pressure on prices.
2. Supply Side: Caprolactam capacity utilization has recently recovered. Based on current operating rates, the supply landscape for October is expected to be loose, exerting downward pressure on prices.
3. Demand Side: Downstream sentiment remains cautious. Unless other major positive catalysts emerge during the holiday, post-holiday demand is likely to remain limited to rigid needs.

Overall, the post-holiday caprolactam market will continue to face a tug-of-war between cost support and weak supply-demand fundamentals, likely resulting in short-term price stagnation.