[Lead] According to preliminary statistics from Chempricehub, from January to July 2026, China's apparent consumption of unsaturated polyester resin totaled 1.6287 million tons, down 327,200 tons from the same period in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 16.73%. Monthly average consumption fell from 290,000 tons to 230,000 tons. During this period, the unsaturated polyester resin market was characterized by continuously declining output, sharply contracting imports, and rapidly climbing exports. The contraction in consumption stemmed partly from resin prices being passively pushed up by raw material costs in the second quarter, and partly from multiple pressures facing the industry, including deepening import substitution, increasing diversion of supply to export markets, and weak domestic end demand.
I. Overall Picture: Consumption Fell Slightly Year-on-Year
According to Chempricehub estimates, apparent consumption of unsaturated polyester resin in China from January to July 2026 was 1.6287 million tons. By component: domestic output was 2.04 million tons, down 14.64% year-on-year; imports were 6,800 tons, down 1,400 tons, or 17.07%; exports were 156,800 tons, up 49,600 tons, or 46.27%.
From a monthly perspective, apparent consumption of unsaturated polyester resin in 2026 followed a pattern of steady growth in the first quarter, downward pressure in the second quarter, and range-bound movement in June-July.
In the first quarter, supported by pre-holiday restocking for the Spring Festival and export orders, domestic apparent consumption reached 689,600 tons, down 7.46% year-on-year. In January alone, consumption reached 281,900 tons, the year's peak, up 16.25% year-on-year.
In the second quarter, consumption fell for three consecutive months, with monthly declines of 13.23%, 4.58%, and 14.21%, totaling 72,800 tons, a year-on-year drop of 18.03%. In February, consumption was only 155,700 tons, the year's low, largely due to two factors: as the Spring Festival holiday approached, most unsaturated polyester resin plants shut down for the break, driving output down to 155,700 tons, while imports plummeted to 7,200 tons. In March, as idled units gradually restarted and supply recovered, apparent consumption rebounded to 252,000 tons.
II. Import Substitution and Export Diversion Jointly Suppressed Apparent Consumption in 2026
On the import side, from January to July, China's unsaturated polyester resin imports fell 49.75% year-on-year. In May and July, the year-on-year declines reached 29.85% and 30.86%, respectively, the lowest levels on record. The continued contraction in imports was driven by two factors: first, the ongoing release of domestic capacity continued to strengthen import substitution; second, overseas plants faced disruptions from geopolitical factors, leading to insufficient operating rates and higher production costs, further eroding the market competitiveness of imported material.
On the export side, from January to July, unsaturated polyester resin exports rose 46.29% year-on-year. The first quarter saw consistently strong performance, and in April, monthly exports reached 24,600 tons, a sharp increase of 55.23% year-on-year and a record high, further consolidating the industry's net export position.
III. After Excluding Structural Factors, End Domestic Demand Remains Weak
Chempricehub believes that the 28.39% year-on-year decline in apparent consumption of domestic unsaturated polyester resin from January to July 2026 does not imply that actual domestic demand shrank by the same magnitude.
Even after removing distortions from statistical factors and substitution, the second-quarter apparent consumption contracted sharply by 24.45% year-on-year, still reflecting pressure in end markets. Order performance in major downstream sectors such as FRP (fiber-reinforced plastic) and quartz stone was lackluster. Product manufacturers generally adopted a "purchase as needed" strategy, with weak willingness to build inventories. Under the traditional off-season backdrop, rigid demand was difficult to fully release.
IV. Outlook: Supply to Return to High Levels, Month-on-Month Recovery Expected but Year-on-Year Trend Uncertain
Looking ahead, raw material prices remain firm, and cost-side support persists, raising expectations that unsaturated polyester resin plants will shut down or cut operating rates. Factory offers are holding firm; however, given the lack of concentrated restocking on the demand side, the upside for prices is limited. Against the backdrop of continued import substitution, imports of unsaturated polyester resin are expected to remain at low levels. On the export side, the United States will impose quota restrictions and additional tariffs on imported quartz stone from August 15, so quartz stone resin exports are expected to decline, and overall exports are likely to keep trending downward.
On the domestic demand front, if downstream demand recovers in September during the traditional peak season, and terminal sectors such as FRP and quartz stone carry out concentrated restocking, unsaturated polyester resin prices still have room for upward revision. Conversely, if the recovery in end demand falls short of expectations, as previously disrupted units return to normal operation and supply gradually recovers, the market may face downward pressure after a brief rebound. There is relatively high certainty that apparent consumption of unsaturated polyester resin will recover month-on-month. However, whether the data can turn positive year-on-year will depend on whether downstream terminal orders improve substantively.
Conclusion
Overall, from January to July 2026, apparent consumption of domestic unsaturated polyester resin fell 16.73% year-on-year. This change was the result of three compounding factors: deepening import substitution, diversion of supply to exports, and weak end demand. It includes structural effects from capacity substitution and statistical caliber adjustments, while also genuinely reflecting the downward pressure on domestic demand in the second quarter.
Entering the second half of the year, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic apparent consumption of unsaturated polyester resin is expected to improve month-on-month. However, the core pattern of "ample supply growth but weak demand recovery" has not fundamentally changed, and the strength and sustainability of domestic demand recovery remain to be further observed.
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