In early August, domestic acrylonitrile prices surged to a five-year high of 12,400 yuan/ton on an ex-tank basis in East China. By mid-month, prices fluctuated downward to around 12,000 yuan/ton, but the market has rebounded somewhat recently. For the month as a whole, persistently tight supply ran through the entire August market and was the direct factor supporting the market’s high-level operation.
Specifically, the mid-month pullback in acrylonitrile prices was driven on one hand by expectations of rising supply, as units under maintenance had restart plans; on the other hand, downstream buyers showed clear resistance and their purchasing enthusiasm declined. However, unit operational uncertainties kept emerging. Since the second half of the month, acrylonitrile industry supply has not increased but rather decreased: the restart of the Sailboat unit was postponed, while one production line at Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down due to a fault, and the Haijiang unit also experienced a brief outage this week due to a fault. The industry capacity utilization rate fell to less than 64%, further reducing overall supply.
At the same time, low acrylonitrile industry inventories provided strong support for the latest rebound. After the earlier brief outage at Lihuayi was resolved and the unit restarted, supply in the Shandong region was alleviated, but supply shortages in East China persisted. Spot resources were therefore gradually absorbed from north to south, and overall supply remained tight. During this period, domestic producers maintained relatively low inventory levels with brisk sales. The Haijiang unit’s fault shutdown this week further aggravated the shortage of spot resources.
However, downstream buyers’ resistance will continue to cap the rebound. The prolonged high acrylonitrile prices have squeezed profit margins across most downstream sectors. The ABS industry has been sustaining losses, and recently the profitability of the acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries has also declined markedly, with some producers saying they are already on the brink of losses. Poor downstream profitability has weakened production enthusiasm; all three major downstream sectors are operating at a low load of 50–60%. Moreover, despite the approaching traditional peak season in September, downstream enterprises show no signs of raising operating rates and may even plan further output cuts.
In addition, supply-side changes remain the direct factor steering price trends in the coming period. At present, the 130,000-ton unit at Tianchen Qixiang has restarted and recovered, and Shandong Haijiang is also planned to return to normal this weekend, so supply in the Shandong region is expected to increase next week. In East China, attention will remain on whether Sailboat and Zhenhai can restart as scheduled, but the increment will be concentrated in September. In the short term, acrylonitrile industry supply remains limited and inventories are generally low, so suppliers still have the conditions to support prices. In the longer term, however, market expectations point to a fluctuating downward trend in September as supply increases, but given the persistence of uncertainties, the pace of price declines may remain relatively slow.
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