Following the National Day holiday, the acetone market faces pressure for a pullback from elevated levels.

[Lead] Throughout September, the acetone market experienced a rally driven by rising costs and tightening supply. Prices in East China briefly broke through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark, climbing to a high of 9,300–9,350 yuan/ton, reaching levels not seen in five years. However, after the market center shifted upward, end-user procurement slowed. With holidays approaching, the balance between bullish and bearish factors is tilting, and the risk of a post-holiday price correction cannot be ignored.

(1) Supply-side recovery creates pressure

Table 1: Domestic Phenol-Acetone Plant Operational Status (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In late September, Shandong Fuyu’s 250,000-ton/year unit and Wanhua Chemical’s 780,000-ton/year phenol-acetone unit gradually restarted, lifting the domestic phenol-acetone capacity utilization rate to 89%. Domestic acetone production in September reached 294,300 tons, an increase of 8.84% month-on-month. In October, Sinopec Tianjin’s 350,000-ton/year phenol-acetone unit has scheduled maintenance, which requires continued monitoring. Market rumors suggest that due to tensions in the Middle East, some refineries may reduce operating loads, potentially impacting the phenol-acetone industry; therefore, subsequent plant operating rates need to be closely followed.

Regarding ports, inventory in Jiangyin dropped to a five-year low in September. This low stock level provided significant support for acetone prices.

Table 2: Weekly Statistics of Sample Acetone Arrivals in East China (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

According to Chempricehub statistics, vessel arrivals in early September totaled 7,800 tons, with 27,900 tons of cargo in transit. Based on shipping schedules, future imported cargoes are primarily expected to arrive from Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and South Korea. As vessel arrivals replenish stocks, the tight supply situation will ease.

(2) Insufficient downstream absorption capacity constrains growth

Table 3: Capacity Utilization Statistics of Key Downstream Industries

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Considering recent maintenance and restarts, operational changes across downstream deep-processing industries have been mixed.

Bisphenol A (BPA) Industry: In September, Huizhou Zhongxin’s Phase I and II 240,000-ton/year BPA units shut down. Luxi Chemical remained offline. Nanya Plastics’ 150,000-ton/year BPA unit shut down in September. Wanhua Chemical’s 576,000-ton/year BPA unit, which had been offline since August 10, restarted on September 25. Shandong Fuyu’s 180,000-ton/year BPA unit shut down on August 23 and is expected to restart after the National Day holiday. Nantong Starry Sky’s 150,000-ton/year BPA unit shut down on August 25 and restarted on September 25.

MMA Industry: Six producers using the ACH process halted operations during the month, including Jiangsu Sirbon, Jiangsu Jiankun, Jilin Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Liaoning Jinfa, and Longxin, all undergoing varying durations of maintenance.

Isopropanol Industry: Seven plants using the acetone method started or stopped operations. Units at Shandong Hailijia, Qixiang Tengda, Huizhou Yuxin, Ningbo Juhua, Zhuhai Changcheng, and LiHuayi Weiyuan were shut down, while the Qingdao Haiwan unit resumed operations.

MIBK Industry: Two MIBK plants suspended operations during the month: Ningbo Zhenyang and Wanhua Chemical.

Currently, acetone prices are at a phased high, while industries such as BPA, isopropanol, and MIBK are generally operating at a loss. Their ability to pass on higher raw material costs is limited, so they maintain purchasing based solely on essential demand. The MMA industry maintains only marginal profitability, but fewer companies are actively entering the market for tender procurement. Without strong support from the demand side, further price increases face significant hurdles.

(3) Cost support remains, but its strength is weakening

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Prices for pure benzene and propylene remain at relatively high levels, providing a certain cost floor for acetone. However, as the supply side gradually shifts toward loosening, cost support can only delay the pace of decline rather than reverse the trend.

(4) Market Outlook

Overall, regarding supply, domestic phenol-acetone capacity utilization is expected to rise to 87% in October. Imported cargoes are mostly scheduled to arrive after the National Day holiday to replenish stocks, which should lead to an increase in port inventories. Regarding costs, the outlook for pure benzene still offers support, maintaining cost-end pressure on acetone, though losses for phenol-acetone producers are unlikely to ease significantly. On the demand side, BPA demand is expected to improve, while other industries show little overall change, primarily engaging in restocking based on actual needs. Overall, once pre-holiday terminal stockpiling concludes, the re-emergence of supply-side recovery and the contradiction of weak demand absorption will dominate the market. Under the tug-of-war between increasing supply and mediocre demand, the center of gravity for acetone prices is likely to shift downward amid fluctuations, and the risk of a pullback is accumulating.