Introduction: The fluorite market experienced volatility in September, with prices reaching elevated levels. In most regions, previously high transaction prices became the mainstream benchmark. Continuous inflows of external supply prevented any significant fluctuation in the forward-looking market. Long-term bearish sentiment has led to cautious participation among industry players.
From the supply side, domestic fluorite capacity utilization stood at 62% in September, a month-over-month increase of 4 percentage points, but still 13 percentage points lower year-over-year. Overall operating rates have not yet returned to last year’s levels, indicating that mine restarts are proceeding gradually. Key producers such as Zhejiang Jinshi Changshan Mining, Juhua Juyuan, and Zhejiang Shunling Mining resumed operations, alongside Xinjiang Xinfа. Combined with sustained input from peripheral sources, these factors drove up beneficiation plant utilization. Regional safety and environmental regulations remain strict; underground mines in areas like Zhejiang underwent individual inspections and reviews, with some halting production for self-checks. Consequently, supply expansion is constrained by policy pacing. This explains why supply elasticity exists but does not respond rapidly. Over the long cycle, fluorite prices have recovered from last year’s lows and are currently oscillating at mid-to-high levels. The underlying logic of this rally stems from expectations of supply constraints due to fluorite’s status as a strategic mineral, coupled with strong downstream fluorochemical demand. However, in September, upward momentum faced pressure from profit-taking activities.
In terms of cost and profit margins, fluorite profits rose by RMB 33 per ton to reach RMB 715 per ton, an increase of approximately 23%, showing marked improvement. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) profits surged by RMB 324 per ton month-over-month to RMB 407 per ton, representing a staggering 390% increase—the highest profit elasticity in the chain for the month. Thus, September’s profit structure can be characterized as "broad-based improvement across the chain, with the greatest elasticity in intermediate segments." AHF profits soared primarily because its pricing increased by RMB 300 per ton, with spot orders hitting RMB 16,000 per ton, effectively passing on cost pressures. Meanwhile, sulfuric acid prices continued to decline throughout the month due to weak demand pull. This indicates that both fluorite and AHF markets were seller-driven in September, allowing smooth price transmission. Nevertheless, traders engaged in widespread inventory liquidation. Why sell while prices are rising? Because long-term bearish views suggest September may represent a cyclical peak, prompting players to secure profits.
Currently, October pricing guidance for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid stands at RMB 14,500–14,600 per ton, reflecting a drop of RMB 600 per ton. The projected fluorite price index for October is RMB 3,650 per ton, suggesting continued weakness in fluorite prices. Downstream refrigerant inventories remain high, and refrigerant operating rates are expected to decrease by 50–70% during October and November. This will significantly reduce AHF consumption, thereby compressing fluorite absorption capacity. Additionally, with anticipated restarts at Jin’ebao and increased operations within the Wengfu system, low-cost AHF supply will continue to expand. However, given the bottom support provided by stockpiling demand for fluorite, deep price declines are unlikely.
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