Ethylene Tar Market Remains Stable with Mainstream Trends (September 18–24, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Week

① Saudi Arabia indicated that repairs to previously damaged oil pipelines are progressing faster than expected.

② Delegations from the United States and Iran held meetings during the UN General Assembly, with markets anticipating a further easing of tensions in the Middle East.

③ Iran stated it is not in a hurry to initiate negotiations until relevant conditions are met, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for the time being.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Current status of the ethylene tar market: Mainstream prices for ethylene tar have maintained high-level consolidation. This week, high-temperature coal tar prices declined slightly, but the price differential between high-temperature coal tar and ethylene tar remains within a reasonable range. Additionally, supply-side support is provided by low output volumes of light-feedstock-derived ethylene tar. Consequently, the ethylene tar market remained stable this week with no significant fluctuations.

3. Statistics on Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

According to data monitoring by Chempricehub Information, as of the 24th, Sinopec’s naphtha ex-factory price for September 2026 is projected to adjust to 6,569 CNY/ton, an increase of 589 CNY/ton compared to the previous month.

International crude oil prices are expected to have room for upside next week. WTI may range between $88–93/barrel, while Brent may range between $99–104/barrel. The core logic behind the forecast is that US-Iran negotiations have yet to achieve a breakthrough, geopolitical instability persists in the Middle East, full restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the short term, and supply risks continue to support oil prices. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: Recovery of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is slower than anticipated; Houthi forces continue to harass shipping in the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; additionally, the US has implemented a naval blockade against Iran, causing ongoing fermentation of crude oil supply risks. Furthermore, Russian refineries have passively reduced production due to Ukrainian attacks, further tightening crude oil supply.
2. Demand Side: Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain low; some Asian refineries plan to reduce loads. Coupled with institutions’ bearish outlook on global crude oil demand and the end of the peak season for US fuels, overall demand remains weak.
3. Geopolitics: US-Iran talks have yielded no substantial results, core disagreements persist between both sides, reaching a peace agreement remains difficult, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues, and the geopolitical risk premium remains at a high level.
4. Financial Attributes: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Whether rates will be raised again in October depends on subsequent inflation and employment data. Rate hike expectations will boost the dollar and suppress commodity prices.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Looking ahead to the next period, raw material coal tar prices before the holiday are unlikely to stop falling. Strong downstream pressure on prices has led to significant cost declines, resulting in clear negative factors in the market. Increased maintenance shutdowns among tire enterprises have weakened demand-side support. Pre-holiday procurement volumes were limited. Therefore, new order prices in the carbon black market are expected to continue declining and consolidating.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to continue its sharp downward trend in the next period. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: Improved profitability has effectively boosted coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. Capacity utilization rates of independent coking plants show marginal recovery, leading to increased high-temperature coal tar output. Additionally, poor sales performance in earlier periods has increased inventory pressure for coal tar.
2. Demand Side: Operating rates in deep processing and carbon black sectors will continue to decline due to sluggish product sales and the onset of the maintenance season. Consequently, downstream factories remain passive in their procurement of coal tar.
3. Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment is strong. Affected by the "buy on rises, not on falls" psychology, overall buying activity from downstream sectors is depressed.
4. Inventory Side: Coking enterprises currently do not face significant inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: International crude oil prices still have slight upside potential in the next period. Both feedstocks and finished products for marine fuel are expected to maintain a tight supply and high-price pattern. Wholesale prices for 180 CST are predicted to remain stable or slightly firm, with national weekly average prices rising narrowly on a week-on-week basis. National mainstream transaction prices for 180 CST warehouse pickup wholesale are forecast at 6,850–7,050 CNY/ton; mainstream supply prices for China VI #0 diesel for marine use are forecast at 9,500–9,700 CNY/ton; and mainstream supply prices for light marine fuel oil are forecast at 9,600–9,800 CNY/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast: Currently, mainstream ethylene tar prices maintain high-level consolidation, but the downward trend in coal tar prices is continuously weakening this price support. In the short term, the market is expected to exhibit a stalemate at high levels with localized softening. Producers are largely holding prices steady and adopting a wait-and-see approach. If high-temperature coal tar auction prices continue to fall after the holiday, the price gap between ethylene tar and coal tar will narrow further. Once compressed to critical levels, ethylene tar may face pressure to follow coal tar downwards to restore its comparative price advantage. Overall, the ethylene tar market moves passively in line with coal tar fluctuations. Future attention should focus on the magnitude and persistence of declines in coal tar auctions in major producing regions to determine the upcoming price inflection point for ethylene tar.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.