Ethylene Tar Market Prices Continue to Decline (Oct 9–15, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Week

① Hurricanes have led to a decline in crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.

② Divergences persist in U.S.-Iran negotiations, continuing geopolitical instability.

③ Houthi forces continue attacks on Saudi Arabia; the Riyadh refinery was targeted, heightening market concerns.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

This period's ethylene tar market situation: Ethylene tar prices declined from high levels. As of October 15, the mainstream ex-factory price in East China had fallen to 4,800 CNY/ton. The negative sentiment caused by last week’s drop in high-temperature coal tar prices had not been fully absorbed. Downstream purchasing demand remained moderate, offering limited support to the ethylene tar market. Consequently, ethylene tar prices trended downward. However, signs of a rebound emerged in the high-temperature coal tar market, limiting the extent of the weekly decline in ethylene tar prices.

3. Statistical Table of Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

As of the 15th, Sinopec’s naphtha ex-factory price for October 2026 is expected to adjust to 6,881 CNY/ton, an increase of 291 CNY/ton compared to the previous month.

International crude oil prices are expected to see slight upside potential next week, with WTI likely ranging between $92–$98/barrel and Brent between $103–$109/barrel. The core logic behind this forecast is intensifying competition between bullish and bearish factors. Risk premiums driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical disturbances will continue to support prices, but weak demand expectations and Trump’s remarks aimed at suppressing oil prices will exert some pressure, limiting the upside room for oil prices.

Key focus areas:

1. Supply Side: The U.S.-Iran stalemate persists, with transits through the Strait of Hormuz declining again in October. Continuous Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia keep traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait low, with no significant relief in crude oil supply risks.
2. Demand Side: Weak transit volumes through the two major straits coincide with planned load reductions at some Asian refineries. Additionally, institutions have downgraded global crude oil demand forecasts, and the peak season for U.S. fuel consumption has ended, putting overall pressure on crude oil demand.
3. Geopolitics: Core disagreements between the U.S. and Iran remain unresolved, keeping the situation deadlocked. Signals from the U.S. and Israel suggest that direct conflict with Iran will not escalate before the midterm elections. Mediators such as Qatar continue to push for dialogue and negotiations, slightly easing market fears of a full-scale war between the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified, prolonging geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
4. Financial Attributes: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is low, possibly influenced by midterm election factors, but the probability of a December hike remains high.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Update tomorrow.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: Current supply increases in high-temperature coal tar are limited. Restocking by downstream users, combined across-the-board price hikes in deep-processing products, provides demand support. Market pessimism is dissipating, suggesting short-term upside potential.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: Next period, the domestic marine fuel market is expected to maintain a high-level stalemate with narrow fluctuations. Conditions for sharp rises or falls are insufficient. The national weekly average price is expected to remain stable compared to the previous period. Mainstream wholesale transaction prices for 180 CST warehouse deliveries nationwide are projected at 6,900–7,000 CNY/ton; mainstream bunker delivery prices for National VI Standard 0# diesel are projected at 9,500–9,800 CNY/ton; and mainstream bunker delivery prices for marine light fuel oil are projected at 9,450–9,750 CNY/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast: It is expected that the ethylene tar market will maintain a wait-and-see consolidation pattern in the short term. International crude oil prices may rise next week, potentially strengthening cost-side support. This week, auction prices for high-temperature coal tar began showing a trend of steady increases, boosting the ethylene tar market, with further gains possible subsequently. However, downstream markets face significant cost pressures and operate at low rates, resulting in limited raw material demand primarily restricted to essential purchases. Overall, although demand remains weak, support from the cost side and similar products exists. The ethylene tar market is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude next week, maintaining a consolidating trend.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.