Ethylene Tar Market Price Consolidation (October 16–22, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia remains unresolved, raising market concerns that the conflict risk could spill over into the energy sector.

② The geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine remain unstable. However, the U.S. has exempted certain sanctions against Russia, leading to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors in the market.

③ U.S. crude oil production declined significantly, marking the largest drop since the week of January 30, 2026.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Ethylene Tar Market Overview:
This period, the ethylene tar market exhibited a stalemate with limited movement in either direction, and mainstream prices remained stable. As of October 22, the mainstream ex-factory price in North China was reported at 4,850 CNY/ton, while East China stood at 4,800 CNY/ton. There were no significant fluctuations in South and Central China. On the supply side, Wanhua’s unit remained shut down, but Yangzi Petrochemical resumed operations; overall supply within the market saw little change. Demand constraints were evident, as the core downstream carbon black industry maintained low operating rates and showed strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, resulting in procurement mainly driven by rigid demand via small orders. Lacking strong demand drivers, market participants generally adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Overall, under the interplay of supply and demand, the ethylene tar market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term, requiring clear directional guidance to break the deadlock.

3. Statistics on Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Info

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:
According to Chempricehub data monitoring, as of the 22nd, Sinopec’s naphtha ex-factory price for October 2026 is expected to adjust to 6,993 CNY/ton, an increase of 403 CNY/ton from the previous month.

International Crude Oil Forecast:
International crude oil prices are expected to have upside potential next week, with WTI likely ranging between $94–$101/barrel and Brent between $105–$113/barrel. The core logic behind this forecast is that the Middle East situation remains tense. The stalemate between the U.S. and Iran, along with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, means geopolitical risks are unlikely to fully ease in the short term, providing strong support for oil prices.

Key areas to watch:

1. Supply: Potential conflict risks between the U.S. and Iran persist. Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain unstable, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, and traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains low, sustaining crude oil supply risks.
2. Demand: Under the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil demand remains weak. Operating loads at some Asian refineries are low, Russian refineries are maintaining low loads due to Ukrainian attacks, and seasonal support for U.S. fuel oil is fading, making the demand outlook less optimistic.
3. Geopolitics: In the Middle East, the U.S.-Iran standoff continues, transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and sporadic Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia keep regional instability alive, suggesting no obvious easing in the short term. Regarding Russia, although both sides have signaled willingness for peace talks, substantial progress has not been made, leaving the conflict’s trajectory highly uncertain.
4. Financial Factors: The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term, with any rate hike earliest expected in December, implying limited impact of the dollar on oil prices.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast:
In the next cycle, new orders in the raw material coal tar market are expected to show upward momentum. Strong cost support combined with existing procurement demand from downstream sectors suggests that new orders will consolidate firmly.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast:
The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to exhibit a slight upward trend in the next period. Key focus points include:

1. Supply: Raw material coal prices have stabilized, supporting coke prices and narrowing further downside space. Since coking enterprises are currently operating at a loss, some have implemented minor production cuts, leading to expectations of a slight decrease in high-temperature coal tar output.
2. Demand: With the deep processing maintenance season ending, operating rates are gradually recovering. Additionally, downstream deep processing enterprises have some profit margins, maintaining their enthusiasm for operations and ensuring healthy rigid demand for coal tar.
3. Sentiment: In a market prone to rising rather than falling, downstream buying sentiment remains active.
4. Inventory: Coking enterprises currently face no inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast:
Crude oil prices are expected to trend strongly in the next period. Supply of raw materials and finished products in the domestic marine fuel market is anticipated to be slightly tight, causing prices to continue their upward trend. The national weekly average price is expected to rise slightly compared to the previous period. Mainstream wholesale transaction prices for national 180 CST tank-to-tank delivery are projected in the range of 7,000–7,100 CNY/ton. Mainstream supply prices for National VI diesel for marine use are expected at 9,700–10,050 CNY/ton, while light marine fuel oil is projected at 9,650–10,000 CNY/ton.

Ethylene Tar Market Forecast:
Next week, the ethylene tar market is expected to continue narrow-range consolidation, with prices unlikely to see significant breakthroughs. Supporting factors include the relatively high prices of its substitute, high-temperature coal tar, which provides some psychological support for ethylene tar. However, negative factors are more prominent: the downstream carbon black industry still faces loss pressures and shows strong resistance to high raw material prices, limiting purchases to rigid demand only. There are also no signals of large-scale procurement from deep processing sectors. On the supply side, increases and decreases offset each other, resulting in minimal overall changes. Based on comprehensive analysis, mainstream transactions for ethylene tar are expected to remain flat within a range next week. Key focus should be placed on auction dynamics for high-temperature coal tar and changes in operating rates for downstream carbon black and coated pitch industries.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.