Ethylene oxide prices remain stable.

1. Daily Summary

1. Oct 12: Houthi rebels continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, with instability in the Middle East escalating supply risks and driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (November contract) rose by $1.89/bbl to $93.74/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +2.06%; ICE Brent futures (December contract) rose by $1.93/bbl to $106.65/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +1.84%. China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 8.9 yuan/barrel to 709.5 yuan/barrel, but rebounded by 24.7 yuan/barrel to 734.2 yuan/barrel during the night session.

2. Oct 12: The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene spot price was quoted at $1,130/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable today. On the supply side, the restart progress of units undergoing maintenance lagged behind expectations, with no new cargo available for now. Prices for the co-product ethylene glycol (EG) have declined, potentially leading to an expectation of switching production back to EO. Main downstream industries maintained rigid demand follow-up purchases, while market sentiment remained cautious. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices consolidated weakly, with no significant improvement in downstream buying demand, resulting in insufficient transaction volume overall. In summary, the supply side provides certain support, keeping prices firm. Continuous attention is required on changes in upstream and downstream dynamics.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 54.03%. As of the previous trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced from imported ethylene was 1,889.14 CNY/ton; the theoretical profit for EO produced from domestically sourced ethylene was 1,687.5 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. On the supply side, as EG prices continue to weaken, integrated plants may switch production to EO, potentially increasing local supply. However, supply remains tight in some regions, with factories primarily fulfilling existing contract orders, suggesting a slow release of supply in the short term. On the demand side, main downstream industries maintain rigid demand, with ongoing negotiation psychology and continued market caution. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices are currently stable, with average shipping performance and limited boost to external procurement demand. Overall, the supply side offers certain support to EO, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Continuous monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is advised.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Today, the East China ethylene market operated weakly, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 8,600 to 8,800 CNY/ton. Production enterprises within the region faced increased pressure to sell, actively offering discounts to alleviate inventory pressure, causing transaction prices to decline further today. Market acceptance of lower-priced cargo increased, leading to higher transaction volumes at lower price points. Regarding USD-denominated cargo, the shipping market for foreign ethylene remains tight. The USD market is expected to remain resilient, with prices likely fluctuating between $1,080 and $1,180/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to remain stable or undergo narrow adjustments. The primary raw material, EO, is likely to remain stable with a wait-and-see attitude. Supply and demand within the market are trading steadily, with controllable overall supply pressure. Downstream industries are consuming contract volumes at a steady pace. Transaction volumes for low-price ethylene have increased, but suppliers show little willingness to adjust prices further, expecting stability to prevail. Cost-side support is likely limited. There is insufficient room for further price concessions within the monomer market. Downstream buyers enter the market based on rigid demand, choosing to restock at lower prices, maintaining a cautious mindset, and negotiating transactions based on volume. In summary, the price of EPEG in the key East China market is expected to range between 10,000 and 10,300 CNY/ton.

③ Ethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical uncertainties persist, keeping crude oil prices high. However, the supply-demand structure for EG has weakened, making it difficult to sustain a bearish pattern in the short term. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup price in East China is expected to range between 5,500 and 5,600 CNY/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Note:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0–3%.