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Ethanol Market Morning Brief

Published on 2026-10-14

I. Key Points

  1. Oct 13: Intensifying conflict between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia has heightened supply risks, while the market assesses expectations of increased Russian supply. International crude oil prices closed mixed. NYMEX WTI November contract settled at $94.14/bbl, up $0.40 (+0.43%); ICE Brent December contract settled at $105.69/bbl, down $0.96 (-0.90%). China INE crude oil futures (Dec 2026 contract) rose by 22.5 to 732 CNY/bbl; the night session gained 8.6 to 740.6 CNY/bbl.

    Core Logic:

    1. Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional food-grade ethanol prices fluctuated due to changes in local plant operations, but overall regional markets remained stable.
    2. Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol prices remained stable across regions.
    3. Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol prices trended slightly lower with consolidation. Purchase prices from local refineries remained stable.
    4. Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol offers moved higher.

II. Price Table

Unit: CNY/ton, USD/bbl

Chempricehub Ethanol & Fuel Ethanol Products Morning Report

Product Region 2026-10-13 2026-10-12 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 94.14 93.74 +0.4
Brent 105.69 106.65 -0.96
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#) 8475 8475 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 245-245 245-245 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Plant Cost 1993-1993 1993-1993 East China, CNY/ton
Corn (In-factory) Heilongjiang 1988-2037 1988-2037 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2070-2140 2070-2140 Jilin
Henan 2120-2140 2120-2140 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2190-2190 2190-2190 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Food-grade (Standard) Heilongjiang (East) 5000-5050 4950-5050 +50/0 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 5100-5100 5100-5100 Corn-based
Jilin 5130-5220 5130-5220 Corn-based
Shandong - - Cassava, ex-works
Shandong 5500-5550 5500-5550 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5700-5700 5700-5700 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5700-5750 5700-5750 Cassava, ex-works
Anhui 5700-5750 5700-5750 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5700-5800 5700-5800 Molasses/Cassava
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 5050-5150 5050-5150 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5300-5600 5300-5600 Corn-based
Shandong 5550-5600 5550-5600 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5750-5750 5750-5750
Henan 5550-5590 5550-5590 Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5700-5850 5700-5850 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5950-6000 5950-6000 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5800-5870 5800-5870 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5900-5920 5920-5920 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 6200-6250 6200-6250 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) 6300-6300 6300-6300 Corn-based, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 6450-6500 6450-6500 Cassava-based
Anhui 6400-6450 6400-6450 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6500-6600 6500-6600 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5480-5500 5480-5500 Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5800-6087 5800-6087 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Heilongjiang (West) 5800-6087 5800-6087 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Liaoning 6000-6317 6000-6317 Delivered to Liaoning
Jilin 6237-6237 6237-6237 Delivered to Jilin
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 5970-5970 6020-6020 -50/-50 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5780 5780 Online starting bid price
Anhui Starting Bid 6010 6010 Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 6100 6100 Quote, transaction negotiable
Henan High-end - - Shut down
Shandong 6200 6200 Shut down
Hunan 6050 6050 Quote, transaction negotiable
Hebei 6300 6300 Quote, transaction negotiable
Hubei 6100 6100 Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong 6600 6600 Quote, transaction negotiable
Ethyl Acetate East China (Self-pickup) 7000-7170 7000-7170
MTBE Shandong (Self-pickup) 8250-8300 8300-8300 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2130-2200 2140-2210 -10/-10
Jilin 2220-2280 2230-2280 -30/0
Henan 2300-2300 2300-2300
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang-Shandong 460-500 460-500 Standard Ethanol
Henan-Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang-Shandong 400-440 400-440 Standard Ethanol
Northwest-Shandong 270-310 270-310
Mengzhou-Chengdu 360-390 360-390 Return empty trucks are cheaper

III. Data Table

Data Type This Week Last Week Trend Forecast
Cassava Ethanol Profit -518.8 -518.8 ↗
Corn Ethanol Profit -138.75 -138.75 ↗
Coal-based Ethanol Profit 300 300 ↗
Remarks: 1. Cassava ethanol profit refers to production margin for cassava ethanol in North Jiangsu/East China. 2. Corn ethanol profit refers to production margin for corn ethanol in Heilongjiang/Northeast China. 3. Molasses ethanol profit refers to production margin for molasses ethanol in southern markets.

Unit: CNY/ton

IV. Market Outlook

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China are stable with orders being shipped; premium grade supply is relatively tight. Prices in East China are stable but weak; as freight rates from the Northeast drop, delivered prices fall, impacting East China price trends. Prices in Henan are stable with downstream demand driven by rigid procurement needs. Coal-based ethanol prices are stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders and no short-term inventory pressure. Fuel ethanol prices are stable but weak, with some sellers showing a positive attitude toward offloading inventory.

Data Release Date Current Value Trend Forecast
Ethanol Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 59.19% ↗
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 51.08% ↗
Remarks: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

(Note: The second table provided in the input appears to be historical data from Oct 28, 2025, which contradicts the report date of Oct 13, 2026, mentioned in the key points. Based on the instruction to translate the article content, the primary current report tables above reflect the 2026 dates. If the second table was intended as a comparison or separate section, it contains outdated dates relative to the headline. Below is the translation of the second table structure if required for completeness, though typically only the most recent data is retained in daily reports.)

Chempricehub Ethanol & Fuel Ethanol Products Morning Report

Product Region 2025-10-28 2025-10-27 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 60.15 61.31 -1.16
Brent 64.4 65.62 -1.22
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#) 7969 7969 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 212-215 212-215 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Plant Cost 1828-1856 1828-1856 East China, CNY/ton
Corn (In-factory) Heilongjiang 1955-2002 1955-2002 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2010-2090 2020-2090 -10/0 Jilin
Henan 2200-2210 2200-2210 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2170-2170 2160-2160 +10/+10 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Food-grade (Standard) Heilongjiang (East) 4820-4830 4820-4830 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 4850-4900 4850-4900 Corn-based
Jilin 4950-5050 4950-5050 Corn-based
Shandong 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava, ex-works
Shandong 5150-5300 5150-5300 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5300-5300 5300-5300 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava, ex-works
Anhui 5350-5350 5350-5350 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5650-5700 5650-5700 Cassava-based
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 4900-4950 4900-4950 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5100-5450 5100-5450 Corn-based
Shandong 5300-5350 5300-5350 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5380-5380 5380-5380
Henan 5230-5250 5230-5250 Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5400-5450 5400-5450 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5450-5500 5450-5500 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5500-5850 5500-5850 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5650-5950 5650-5950 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 5900-5950 5900-5950 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) - - Corn-based, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 5900-5900 5900-5900 Cassava-based
Anhui 5900-5950 5900-5950 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6350-6450 6350-6450 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5100-5200 5100-5200 Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5200-5200 5200-5200
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5250 5250-5250
Liaoning 5500-5500 5500-5500
Jilin 5400-5400 5400-5400
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 5250-5250 5260-5290 -10/-40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5450 5450 Online quote
Anhui Starting Bid 5400 - Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 5800 5800 Hydrogenation for acetate esters
Henan High-end - - Quote (Plant shut down on the 13th)
Shandong 5400 5460 -60 Quote
Hunan 5600 5600 Quote
Hebei 5600 5600 Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong - -
Guangdong High-end 5950 6100 -150 High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate East China (Self-pickup) 5140-5200 5140-5200
MTBE Shandong (Self-pickup) 4850-4950 4900-4950 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2030-2150 2030-2150
Jilin 1950-2250 1950-2250
Henan 2330-2330 2330-2330
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang-Shandong 280-300 280-300 Standard Ethanol
Henan-Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang-Shandong 330-370 330-370 Fuel Ethanol
Northwest-Shandong 260-270 260-270
Mengzhou-Chengdu 250-300 250-300 Return empty trucks are cheaper

Comments

0
  • Wei Zhang 2026-10-14 10:05
    Coal-based ethanol offers rising while fuel grades soften shows diverging feedstock costs. Geopolitical crude swings add margin pressure for downstream users, but domestic capacity utilization keeps short-term stability ..
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