I. Key Points
(1) Last week, propylene prices declined then rebounded, while glycerin continued its downward trend. The Shandong propylene negotiated price reference was 10,760 CNY/ton, and the East China 99.5% glycerin negotiated price reference was 8,800 CNY/ton.
(2) Last week, the average propylene price in Shandong was 10,500 CNY/ton, and the average liquid chlorine price was 260 CNY/ton. As of the market close on October 23, the weekly average theoretical profit for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene route was 699 CNY/ton.
(3) Last week, the domestic ECH industry’s weekly average capacity utilization rate was 42.49%, down by 2.02 percentage points from the previous week.
(4) Last week, the domestic epoxy resin industry’s weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 50.26%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous period. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 52.38% and 39.13%, respectively.
Core Logic: Cost pressures and supply-demand dynamics are key factors. Although market sentiment remains supportive of prices, downstream demand is generally weak, making it difficult to increase volume. This has put pressure on ECH shipments, resulting in a moderate trading atmosphere.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 23 | Oct 16 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 10,760 | 10,675 | +85 |
| Glycerin | East China | 8,800 | 8,900 | -100 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,125 | 11,250 | -25 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Ex-factory net water basis) | East China | 14,900–15,200 | 15,000–15,300 | -100 / -100 |
III. Data Table
| ECH Industry Supply and Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Oct 23 | Oct 16 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 42.49% | 44.51% | -2.02% | ↑ |
| Production Profit – Propylene Route (CNY/ton) | 699 | 421 | +66.03% | ↑ |
| Production Profit – Glycerin Route (CNY/ton) | -655 | -710 | +7.75% | ↓ |
| Note 1: Capacity utilization refers to the ratio of actual output to installed capacity at production enterprises, reflecting production levels. | ||||
| Note 2: Production profit margin is an industry-wide metric, reflecting overall profitability across major regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price. |
IV. Market Outlook
Last week, domestic ECH prices showed a downward trend. A bearish sentiment pervaded the market, with both buyers and sellers exhibiting pessimistic attitudes. Downstream inquiries remained cautious, and overall demand was weak, placing shipment pressure on ECH producers. Additionally, some plants had scheduled shipments, making it difficult to sustain high prices. Consequently, new orders were often fulfilled with discounts, limiting transaction volumes. Therefore, domestic ECH prices are expected to remain weak with narrow fluctuations in the near term, requiring further monitoring of market trading activities.
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