Divergent trends between futures and spot markets; low port inventories support the basis

1. Key Points of the Day

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin's methanol auction today started at a reserve price of CNY 3,120/ton for a volume of 5,000 tons. The entire lot was successfully sold at final prices ranging from CNY 3,155 to CNY 3,160/ton.

② Qinghai Salt Lake Industry's 1 million ton/year methanol unit and its associated 330,000 ton/year Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) unit underwent scheduled maintenance shutdown starting November 11. The outage is expected to last until November 18.

2. Market Conditions and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Figure 1: 2026 Methanol Price Trend by Key Region (CNY/ton)] [Figure 2: 2025-2026 Methanol Downstream Price Trend (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Daily Commentary: Today's domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,337.15, down by 30.51. Specifically, the Taicang spot price rose by 40 to 3,670, while the Inner Mongolia North Line price fell by 55 to 3,170. According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices declined in 6 cities by varying degrees, with drops ranging from 25 to 90 CNY/ton. The domestic methanol spot market exhibited narrow regional adjustments. Futures traded with an upward bias amid volatility. Although port inventories accumulated as expected, stock levels remain low, and shipping through key straits remains constrained, leading holders to resist selling at lower prices; consequently, the basis strengthened during the day. In inland markets, upstream producers actively cut prices to boost sales. Regular restocking by mid- and downstream players, along with supply shortages in Wuhai and Ningxia, helped transmit this momentum, resulting in decent sales volumes for new pricing in multiple regions. In the short term, beyond monitoring macroeconomic disturbances, attention should focus on MTO units' restocking activities.

3. Basis

[Figure 3: 2026 Methanol Basis Trend (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In the afternoon session, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) methanol futures rebounded slightly. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,052 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,175 CNY/ton and a low of 3,046 CNY/ton, and closed at 3,159 CNY/ton, up 38 CNY/ton from the previous trading day's settlement price. As of the close, open interest for the MA2701 contract stood at 935,900 lots, an increase of 45,600 lots from the previous day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol spot market showed narrow regional adjustments. Futures traded with an upward bias amid volatility. Although port inventories accumulated as expected, stock levels remain low, and shipping through key straits remains constrained, leading holders to resist selling at lower prices; consequently, the basis strengthened during the day. In inland markets, upstream producers actively cut prices to boost sales. Regular restocking by mid- and downstream players, along with supply shortages in Wuhai and Ningxia, helped transmit this momentum, resulting in decent sales volumes for new pricing in multiple regions. In the short term, beyond monitoring macroeconomic disturbances, attention should focus on MTO units' restocking activities.

7. In the medium to long term, inland methanol spot supply remains relatively ample. With easing tensions between the US and Iran, geopolitical risk premiums are gradually fading. Market dynamics are shifting towards the pace of recovery in import arrivals, continuing a pattern of regional divergence and maintaining a range-bound price trend. Key variables to watch include expectations for new capacity startups, navigation conditions through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of import arrival volumes.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Stakeholders (Upstream & Downstream)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products

Glacial Acetic Acid: Market prices continued to decline today. Factory gate prices dropped further, with significant reductions in Northwest China, while declines slowed in other regions. Selling sentiment among factories varied, and traders followed factory offers downward. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to weaken in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market remained weak today. Falling methanol feedstock prices have alleviated cost pressures. Environmental controls persist in many areas, keeping operating rates at downstream wood panel factories at low levels, which limits demand support. Producers, facing inventory reduction pressure, prioritized offering discounts to move goods. Chempricehub expects the formaldehyde market to trade in a low range in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market remained stable today. Costs weakened due to falling methanol prices, but demand within the market remained limited primarily to small industrial uses. Aerosol manufacturers maintained frequent, small-volume procurement. Cost fluctuations had little impact on the DME market, which sustained stable transaction prices. Chempricehub anticipates sideways consolidation for the DME market in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.