Introduction: After returning from the May Day holiday, China's DBP market experienced weak fluctuations following a slight price increase. This was primarily supported by cost-side factors, but the market lacked demand-driven momentum.

I. Cost-Driven Price Increase, Demand Weakness Triggers Decline

| Chart 1: 2025-2026 China DBP Price Trend (CNY/ton) | Chart 2: 2025-2026 China DBP Regional Price Trend (CNY/ton) |
| :--- | :--- |
| (chart image) | (chart image) |
| Source: chempricehub | Source: chempricehub |

After the May Day holiday, with rising prices of raw materials n-butanol and phthalic anhydride, the domestic DBP market faced increased cost pressure. Simultaneously, due to the higher raw material prices, market participants adopted a buying-on-dips mentality. This led to a brief wave of concentrated low-price purchasing after the holiday, boosting trading volumes. Production plants, benefiting from smooth sales, slightly raised their prices. However, after the price increase, downstream users struggled to digest the higher levels. Market trading sentiment cooled, transactions shifted to the lower end of the price range. The brief uptick proved short-lived, and the market began a slow, steady decline, eventually falling back to pre-holiday levels.

Table 1: Domestic DBP Industry Chain Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | Market | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/9 | Change | Change % |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| DBP | Shandong | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | 0% |
| | Henan | 8800 | 8800 | 0 | 0% |
| | North China | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | 0% |
| | South China | 9250 | 9200 | -50 | -0.54% |
| Key Upstream | | | | | |
| n-Butanol | Shandong | 7600 | 7625 | 25 | 0.33% |
| Naphthalene-based PA | Hebei | 7500 | 7700 | 200 | 2.67% |

Source: chempricehub

II. Strong Raw Materials, High Cost Levels

| Chart 3: 2025-2026 China n-Butanol Price Trend (CNY/ton) | Chart 4: DBP Raw Material & Cost Profit Comparison (CNY/ton) |
| :--- | :--- |
| (chart image) | (chart image) |
| Source: chempricehub | Source: chempricehub |

The brief uptick in DBP was primarily driven by rising raw material prices. In the n-butanol market after the holiday, a significant increase in feedstock propylene led to notable cost increases. Under high cost pressure, coupled with concentrated low-price order replenishment from downstream users after the holiday, trading volumes increased. Additionally, with some units starting planned shutdowns, supply reduction supported a sharp rise in n-butanol prices. However, this good fortune was also short-lived. The performance of n-butanol's major downstream sectors was dismal, with operating rates declining. Demand for n-butanol continued to weaken, and transaction prices gradually moved toward lower levels. Meanwhile, the naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride (PA) industry generally had orders oversold until mid-to-late month. Spot supply in the naphthalene-based PA market was tight. This, combined with expectations of plant maintenance shutdowns, caused the naphthalene-based PA market to rebound and rise. However, impacted by a sharp drop in crude oil prices, the upward momentum stalled. Entering the latter half of the week, concentrated restocking for essential downstream needs, coupled with improved export transactions, led to further overselling of inventory in the naphthalene-based PA industry. Spot supply tightened further in some regions, triggering a rebound in the domestic naphthalene-based PA market.

Table 2: DBP Cost Profit Comparison Table (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/9 | Change | Change % |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Shandong Cost | 8652 | 8774 | 122 | 1.41% |
| Shandong Profit | 398 | 276 | -122 | -30.65% |

III. Future Forecast – Strong Cost Support, Weak Demand

Cost Side: Firstly, for raw material n-butanol, maintenance units have not resumed operations in the short term, limiting supply. However, the sharp decline in feedstock propylene prices has significantly weakened support for n-butanol. At the same time, the overall performance of major downstream sectors is not optimistic, and demand is gradually declining. Therefore, the n-butanol market is expected to have room for a moderate decline in the short term. Secondly, the price divergence trend in the domestic PA market is likely to continue, with the market potentially showing a pattern of stronger naphthalene-based PA and weaker ortho-xylene-based PA. Low feedstock inventories in downstream industries, combined with the oversold position of the naphthalene-based PA industry, will sustain the tight spot supply situation in the domestic naphthalene-based PA market. Consequently, prices for domestic naphthalene-based PA may have further room for an upward rebound. The market may primarily focus on narrowing the price gap between ortho-xylene-based and naphthalene-based PA, but a significant premium for ortho-xylene-based PA is likely to persist.

Supply and Demand Side: Currently, on the demand side, end-users are facing unfavorable new order intakes. As the market slowly transitions into the off-season phase, cost pressure is significant. Demand and procurement for DBP products are mainly limited to essential buying needs. Therefore, the support for DBP prices from the demand side is not strong enough.

Overall View: In summary, domestic DBP costs are expected to remain at relatively high levels in the coming period, providing considerable support for DBP prices. However, the overall performance of the downstream sector shows no signs of improvement, with participants mainly sticking to essential, low-price buying. Coupled with relatively stable DBP operating rates, the oversupply situation is likely to intensify further. Therefore, the DBP market is expected to experience volatile and weak trading in the short term.