Costs Surged Sharply; Formaldehyde Prices Followed Suit, Driving Profitability Recovery (Oct 1–8, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Cost: The weekly average cost of methanol was 1,876 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of +4.57%.
2. Profit: The weekly average profit for formaldehyde was 25 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of +180.65%.
3. Capacity Utilization Rate: This week's formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a week-on-week decrease of -8.73%.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The overall price center of the domestic formaldehyde market shifted upward this week. During the holiday period, industry-wide supply decreased slightly. Enterprises that remained operational maintained low-load operations. Although mainstream factories reduced loads, the overall load level remained at the lower-middle range. Downstream panel manufacturers mostly procured based on rigid demand, benefiting from shorter transportation distances and avoiding disruptions caused by logistics restrictions; procurement was largely completed locally. Some factories flexibly adjusted their shipping prices according to their own inventory levels. After a slight rise in prices in major production areas during the holiday, sales remained smooth. Following the post-holiday return, raw material methanol prices surged significantly, strengthening cost-side support. Formaldehyde daily price adjustments followed the upward trend. Amidst wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, rigid demand continued to support limited transactions, causing the market price center to continue rising.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. Raw Material Methanol

Specifically, the port methanol market maintained strength. Although road transport pickups were restricted during the holiday and some inland supplies supplemented availability, vessel arrivals were extremely low. Coupled with export shipments supporting pickup volumes, port methanol inventories dropped significantly compared to pre-holiday levels, hitting new lows. Supply tightness became increasingly prominent, and influenced by macroeconomic factors, coastal market prices remained strong. In the inland market, enterprises had oversold orders before the holiday, leading to slower-than-expected pickup progress during the break. Enterprises focused on active shipment dispatches, resulting in limited inventory accumulation. Combined with post-holiday restocking demand from downstream users, market sentiment improved, driving a significant rally in prices.

2. Cost and Profit

This week, the formaldehyde market's capacity utilization rate declined compared to last week. During the holiday, fluctuations in raw material methanol prices were limited. Formaldehyde plants adjusted product selling prices based on their inventory levels, with prices strengthening amid low inventories and good sales performance. This week, the magnitude of formaldehyde price adjustments exceeded that of methanol, indicating an improvement in formaldehyde industry profits.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

1. Supply Side: With the conclusion of the short holiday, multiple domestic units are expected to restart or increase operating loads. It is projected that next week's recovery volume will exceed losses, suggesting an anticipated rise in the capacity utilization rate.

2. Comprehensive Outlook: Chempricehub Information predicts that the formaldehyde market will likely maintain a firm consolidation trend in the short term.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Formaldehyde Weekly Report.