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Cost and Supply-Demand Dynamics Intertwine: ECH Prices Rise Then Fall (September 2026)

Published on 2026-09-28
  1. Monthly Market Analysis

① China’s monthly production of epichlorohydrin (ECH) in September was 113,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.03%.
② The average theoretical profit for glycerin-based ECH in China in September was -773 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.62%.
③ In September, 15 ECH units in China underwent maintenance, involving a total capacity of 1.043 million tons/year, resulting in a combined loss of 72,000 tons.

  1. Monthly Market Analysis

Domestic ECH Market Price Monthly Change Table
Unit: RMB/ton

Region Current Period Average Previous Period Average Same Period Last Year MoM Change YoY Change
Jiangsu 11393 11261 12520 1.17% -9.00%
Huangshan 11470 11374 12617 0.84% -9.09%
Shandong 11146 11032 12260 1.03% -9.09%

In September, the domestic ECH market exhibited an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by a combination of cost and supply-demand factors. At the beginning of September, the temporary shutdown of Shandong Minji’s unit ended the downward trend that had persisted since late August. This shutdown hindered contract deliveries for some traders, boosting market inquiries and strengthening price support intentions in the Shandong market, with other regions largely following suit. On September 9, the delivered acceptance price in the Jiangsu market rose to 11,500–11,600 RMB/ton, a 2.67% increase from the start of the month, indicating a generally strong trend.

By mid-September, although enterprises and traders maintained positive sentiment due to expectations of pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the significant upward movement in bisphenol A (BPA) prices led major downstream epoxy resin manufacturers to reduce raw material procurement, focusing instead on consuming contracts and inventory. Consequently, spot shipment pace for ECH producers slowed, lacking effective drivers for further price increases, and the market entered a phase of narrow consolidation with limited volatility.

In late September, the weakening trend of the main raw material, glycerin, combined with persistently soft downstream demand, put pressure on shipments of high-priced ECH inventories. Producers grew increasingly concerned about the outlook, showing stronger willingness to offer discounts to move goods, leading to a retreat from highs. On September 20, the delivered price in the Jiangsu market fell to 11,100–11,200 RMB/ton. By September 21, prices dropped below 11,000 RMB/ton, stimulating downstream enterprises’ enthusiasm for pre-holiday stockpiling. However, proactive inventory reduction by producers before the holiday resulted in a dilemma where prices struggled to either rise or fall significantly, with actual transactions mostly negotiated within this range. Near the end of the month, despite some producers having oversold their inventory and expressing willingness to push new order prices up, limited actual transaction volumes suppressed market gains, keeping prices fluctuating within the established range. As of September 28, the delivered acceptance price in the Jiangsu market stood at 11,100–11,200 RMB/ton, down 100 RMB/ton from September 1, representing a 0.89% decline.

  1. Next Month Market Forecast

Looking ahead to October 2026, the domestic ECH market is expected to operate with overall weak fluctuations, with little likelihood of significant price volatility. On the cost side, domestic glycerin prices are projected to remain in a weak, narrow adjustment range; however, cost support for glycerin-based ECH remains solid, providing stability to the market.

Comments

0
  • Priya Kapoor 2026-09-28 20:11
    ECH prices fluctuated as 15 units underwent maintenance, cutting supply by 9%. Despite a MoM rise, weak downstream demand and negative glycerin-based margins cap upside. Capacity utilization recovery in October may press..
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