Corporate inventories within the region are under no pressure, and offers remain firm.

1. Today's Summary

① On September 28, US-Iran relations remained in a deadlock, and concerns over supply risks persisted, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI November futures closed at $92.60/bbl, up $0.19/bbl (+0.21% WoW); ICE Brent November futures closed at $105.28/bbl, up $0.96/bbl (+0.92% WoW). China INE November (2611) crude oil futures rose by CNY 9.3 to CNY 734.1/bbl during the day session but fell by CNY 22.5 to CNY 711.6/bbl in the night session.

② On September 29, domestic liquid chlorine prices dropped to CNY 100/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Based on the Shandong region as the benchmark, dichloromethane in Shandong closed at CNY 2,910/ton today (range: CNY 2,880–2,940/ton), an increase from the previous working day. The upward trend in the domestic dichloromethane market continued. Overall operating rates hovered around 70%. Following pre-holiday restocking by downstream users and traders, enterprise inventories remained low, prompting producers to continue raising their offer prices, which shifted the market center upwards. However, trading activity slowed down after prices reached high levels.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for methane chlorides was 64.13%, a decrease from the previous working day. Regarding cost and profit, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices fell while methanol prices remained stable, leading to a reduction in theoretical costs for methane chlorides. Calculated based on externally purchased liquid chlorine, the daily profit for methane chlorides stood at CNY 170/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Regional enterprises face no inventory pressure. Coupled with planned shutdowns or reduced operations at certain facilities in the Shandong region subsequently, regional operating rates are expected to continue declining. However, dichloromethane prices have already reached high levels, and with the upcoming National Day holiday, support from the demand side is likely to weaken. Amidst these conflicting factors, the domestic dichloromethane market is expected to trade sideways at high levels. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in market sentiment.

5. Related Product Updates

Refrigerant Market: Based on the bulk shipment market in East China, major fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 plants maintained high prices through volume control. As of press time, mainstream large-scale plants in East China offered prices around CNY 65,500/ton (coordinated for domestic and export markets); mainstream market offers ranged from CNY 63,500 to CNY 64,500/ton, consistent with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that inquiries for bulk shipments in channel markets have been passively long-term fixed supplies to host factories. Recently, quarterly long-term contract negotiations with commercial enterprises have intensified, awaiting finalization of actual orders. Shipment frequency for small packages has slowed, so source factories are strictly controlling spot inventory increases. Statistics show that the overall industry operating rate for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 remains near 40%. With factory scheduling and consumption power further contracting recently, export volumes have declined. Under the high-level consolidation of R32 prices, channel holders are seeking opportunities to offload inventory. There is little intent to purchase high-cost inventory, and buyers are waiting for clear pricing signals from mainstream large plants. Chempricehub forecasts that short-term strategy for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 will focus on volume control and price maintenance, with negotiated pricing via contracts. Monitor industry facility dynamics and production scheduling rhythms.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Methane Chloride Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)