China's Phenol Market Experiences a Rise-Then-Fall Trend with Month-on-Month Increase in Average Price (September 2026)

1. Key Highlights of the Month

1. China's phenol production in September reached 475,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.88% and a month-on-month increase of 8.67%.
2. The average profit margin for Chinese phenol/acetone producers in September was -550 RMB/ton, a decrease of 188 RMB/ton from the previous month, marking a drop of 51.93%.
3. Six phenol/acetone units underwent maintenance in September, involving a total capacity of 1.64 million tons/year, resulting in a combined output loss of 84,000 tons.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Table: Domestic Phenol Market Price Monthly Fluctuation Table (Unit: RMB/ton)

In September, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell. As of September 28, transaction prices in the East China phenol market were referenced at 8,750–8,800 RMB/ton. At the beginning of the month, influenced by external environmental factors, prices of both raw materials surged significantly. Strong cost-side support drove phenol prices higher as the market followed suit. However, due to weak end-user purchasing interest, the upward trend in phenol was noticeably weaker than that of pure benzene, widening the inverted price spread between the two. During the same period, the byproduct acetone showed a stronger trend, narrowing the price gap with phenol and even briefly experiencing an inversion. This partially offset high costs, helping to balance the losses incurred by phenol/acetone producers. While high costs provided support, some factories implemented short-term shipping suspensions and purchase limits in the early part of the month. Shandong factories led the price increases first, amplifying the phased market gains. Around mid-month, divergent trends emerged between northern and southern markets. Increased wait-and-see attitudes under the tug-of-war of north-south price spreads led to downward pressure on northern prices. Subsequently, rising costs and expectations of tight spot supply triggered further price pushes, but news of pure benzene hitting its daily limit down on the same day capped these gains, causing the market trend to reverse downward. In the latter part of the month, although pure benzene prices remained persistently high, with phenol prices inverted against pure benzene by more than 1,500 RMB/ton, this abnormal situation was difficult to alleviate due to sluggish end-user demand. Both buyers and sellers participated cautiously, with limited follow-up in negotiations.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. As of September 28, Sinopec's East China phenol price was executed at 8,900 RMB/ton.
2. The monthly capacity utilization rate was 79.62%, an increase of 8.72 percentage points from the previous period and 7.88 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
3. As of September 28, phenol inventory at Jiangyin Port stood at 7,000 tons, comprising 1,000 tons at Hengyang and 6,000 tons at Huaxi.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

The phenol market is expected to fluctuate in the next period, with the average price forecast leaning towards strength. On the supply side, domestic shutdowns and maintenance losses for phenol/acetone units are expected to decrease in October, leading to an anticipated increase in domestic supply. Although imported cargo offers some replenishment, the impact on spot supply is not expected to be significant; however, export dynamics should be considered in conjunction. On the demand side, the supply of major downstream product Bisphenol A (BPA) is expected to increase in the next period, driving a corresponding rise in phenol demand. Demand for phenolic resin may also see an increase.