China butadiene prices soften on weak crude and demand, utilization at 63.78%

1. Daily Summary

① On November 3, Sinopec East China ex-factory price for butadiene remained stable at 15,050 RMB/ton, while downstream synthetic rubber prices declined.

② On November 3, the domestic butadiene industry capacity utilization rate was 63.78%, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the delivered price in the Shandong Luzhong region, today's closing price was 15,075 RMB/ton, a decrease of 225 RMB/ton compared to the previous period. Today, domestic butadiene market prices saw a slight pullback. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East eased slightly, leading to declines in crude oil and naphtha prices, which weakened cost support. Additionally, major downstream product markets fluctuated and weakened, with strong resistance to high prices. Sellers lowered their offers, shifting the center of gravity for actual transactions downward, resulting in a slight softening of the market. The delivered price range in the Shandong Luzhong region was 14,950–15,200 RMB/ton, while the reference price for tank departure self-pickup in East China was around 14,600 RMB/ton.

On November 3, the domestic butadiene industry capacity utilization rate stood at 63.78%, remaining stable compared to the previous business day. Regarding theoretical production profits, on November 2, the Japanese naphtha market saw a slight adjustment downwards. Sinopec raised its butadiene price by 150 RMB/ton to 15,050 RMB/ton. Consequently, the theoretical production profit for butadiene via C4 extraction increased, with the calculated profit for the C4 extraction process reaching 4,872.68 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, falling crude oil and naphtha prices have slightly reduced cost-side support. Coupled with slow recovery in downstream operating rates and generally weak demand, resistance to high-priced butadiene remains significant, offering limited guidance for the market trend. However, external sales resources are relatively tight, and sellers' willingness to lower prices further is not strong. Therefore, the supply side continues to provide support for the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will consolidate within a high-level range.

5. Related Products Status

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, prices for cis-polybutadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber declined. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 dropped by 500 RMB/ton to 16,550 RMB/ton, while Qilu SBR 1502 fell by 500 RMB/ton to 16,400 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Butadiene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons, RMB/ton)