March 11th — Recently, Shenma Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shenma Shares") issued the "Announcement on the Extension of Some Fundraising Investment Projects," announcing that the nylon chemical industry supporting hydrogen-ammonia project and the 50,000 tons/year adiponitrile project will be extended to June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, respectively.
Chempricehub's analysis of liquid ammonia, with a long-short score of 0.5:
The delay of the hydrogen-ammonia project alleviates supply pressure. Currently, demand in the chemical industry is weak, and the project delay will slow down the release of new production capacity, temporarily easing the oversupply situation in the liquid ammonia market and providing slight support for spot prices. However, attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of downstream demand in agriculture and the chemical sector, with a neutral-to-bullish impact that remains limited.
Adiponitrile, with a long-short score of 1.5:
The delay in the commissioning of adiponitrile capacity strengthens expectations of tight supply. The postponement of the 50,000 tons/year project to the end of 2026 exacerbates the supply gap for high-end nylon raw materials in China. Combined with data such as the settlement price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract 2605 at 4,376 yuan/ton (a daily drop of 168 yuan) and a decrease in open interest by 83,631 lots, the delay may alleviate the downward pressure on related products such as ethylene glycol through industrial chain transmission, benefiting the prices of adiponitrile and its derivatives in the medium to long term.