On February 6, the CFR Japan price of naphtha was USD 602.63 per ton, and the ethylene-naphtha processing spread was -USD 162.63 per ton, a month-on-month increase of USD 1.63 per ton.
PriceSeek Analysis:
Naphtha – Bull-Bear Score: 1
The ethylene-naphtha processing spread increased by USD 1.63 per ton month-on-month to -USD 162.63 per ton. The narrowing loss indicates improved profitability in ethylene production, which may stimulate higher operating rates of cracking units, thereby increasing naphtha demand and supporting spot prices.
Ethylene – Bull-Bear Score: 0.5
The improvement in the processing spread alleviates production losses and may lead to increased ethylene supply, exerting a slight bearish pressure on spot prices. However, considering polyethylene futures data (e.g., the closing price of the main contract 2605 at CNY 6,721 per ton and an increase in open interest), as a downstream product, the improved spread supports production enthusiasm, providing a slight boost to futures market sentiment.
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