Overview: In April 2026, domestic ethylene prices showed an overall downtrend. Before the May Day holiday, commodity ethylene supply was ample, prompting producers to reduce prices actively to clear inventories, leading to a sharp drop in ethylene prices. As of April 30, the ethylene price in East China had fallen to 8,600–8,650 yuan/ton, down over 1,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. After the holiday, ample ethylene supply is expected to persist, making it more likely for prices to decline than to rise.

1. Market Review (April 27–April 30)

[Table omitted: "Figure 1 Domestic Ethylene Major Market Price Trend (unit: yuan/ton)" and "Data source: chempricehub.com" ignored as per instructions.]

Table 1 Domestic Ethylene and Related Product Price List

| Product | Region/Brand | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---------|--------------|-----------------------|------------------------|--------|----------|------|
| Ethylene | East China | 8,668.75 | 8,981.25 | -312.50 | -3.60% | yuan/ton |
| LLDPE | Shandong | 8,307.50 | 8,175.00 | +132.50 | +1.59% | yuan/ton |
| Styrene | East China | 10,182.50 | 9,947.50 | +235.00 | +2.31% | yuan/ton |
| Ethylene Oxide | East China | 9,000.00 | 9,000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/ton |
| Ethylene Glycol | East China | 5,099.50 | 4,903.25 | +196.25 | +3.85% | yuan/ton |

Analysis: The recent weakness in the ethylene market was mainly due to abundant commodity supply. According to chempricehub.com statistics, domestic commodity ethylene supply (including both marine and pipeline transportation) exceeded 300,000 tons in April 2026, a record high in recent years. The primary reason was the weak profitability of derivatives such as polyethylene and PVC. Some producers, aiming to improve overall economics, chose to reduce derivative operating rates while increasing external ethylene sales, thereby boosting market commodity supply. As a result, downstream plants had more procurement channels and stronger bargaining power, offering lower bid prices. The market frequently saw low-price negotiations, forcing producers to cut prices to move goods. Approaching the May Day holiday, with downstream contract and low-priced spot purchases already substantially completed, the ethylene market showed no signs of bottoming out. By April 30, the ethylene spot price in East China had dropped to 8,600–8,650 yuan/ton, while the Shandong market fell to 8,300–8,400 yuan/ton.

In contrast to the ethylene market, stronger crude oil prices led to rallies in most petrochemical derivatives. Among them, ethylene glycol posted the most notable gain, driven primarily by ongoing geopolitical tensions that boosted crude oil prices significantly, further lifting market sentiment and pushing ethylene glycol prices higher.

2. Data Analysis

[Table omitted: "Figure 2 Domestic Ethylene Production Margin Trend (unit: yuan/ton)" and "Data source: chempricehub.com" ignored.]

Table 2 Domestic Ethylene and Related Product Data

| Product | Indicator | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|--------|----------|------|
| Ethylene | Production margin (ethane cracking) | 3,757.55 | 3,511.05 | -246.50 | -6.56% | yuan/ton |
| | Capacity utilization rate | 79.07% | 79.03% | -0.04% | - | - |
| Product | Key downstream | | | | | |
| Polyethylene | Capacity utilization rate | 72.68% | 72.71% | +0.03% | - | - |
| Styrene | Capacity utilization rate | 71.94% | 71.97% | +0.03% | - | - |
| Ethylene Oxide | Capacity utilization rate | 53.07% | 52.78% | -0.29% | - | - |
| Ethylene Glycol | Capacity utilization rate | 53.38% | 51.85% | -1.53% | - | - |
| PVC | Capacity utilization rate | 59.04% | 51.57% | -7.47% | - | - |
| EVA | Capacity utilization rate | 67.50% | 61.89% | -5.61% | - | - |

This week, the production margin for ethane-based ethylene was 3,757.55 yuan/ton, down 246.50 yuan/ton or 6.56% from the previous week. The margin decline was mainly driven by the sharp drop in ethylene prices, but the process still maintained a high profitability level, keeping overall operating rates above 100%. In terms of capacity utilization, driven by the national "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy, several naphtha crackers at Sinopec and PetroChina raised operating rates. However, a reduction in MTO operating rates during the week, coupled with the shutdown of the BASF cracker in Zhanjiang, dragged down overall capacity utilization.

For derivatives, most ethylene derivative capacity utilization rates declined this week, with PVC and EVA seeing particularly significant drops. This was mainly due to the dual pressure of high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, which continuously squeezed production margins and in turn affected plant operating rates.

3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

Table 3 Domestic Ethylene Data Forecast

| Indicator | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | % Change | Unit |
|-----------|-----------|-----------|--------|----------|------|
| Ethylene price | 8,650 | 8,350 | -300 | -3.47% | yuan/ton |
| Capacity utilization rate | 79.03% | 79.39% | +0.36% | - | - |
| Polyethylene capacity utilization | 72.71% | 81.07% | +8.36% | - | - |
| Styrene capacity utilization | 71.97% | 72.83% | +0.86% | - | - |
| Ethylene Oxide capacity utilization | 52.78% | 52.33% | -0.45% | - | - |
| PVC capacity utilization | 51.57% | 49.00% | -2.57% | - | - |

[Figure 3 sentiment survey omitted along with its data source line.]

On the supply side, after the holiday, the market will return to normal operations. Ethylene producers with external sales will see inventories gradually accumulate, increasing inventory pressure and strengthening the willingness to sell. Short-term external sales will face significant pressure. Meanwhile, the operating rhythm of the industrial chain will see adjustments after the holiday. Some ethylene oxide plants are scheduled to enter maintenance cycles one after another, limiting the increase in operating rates. PVC units that have already reduced output will continue to operate at low loads, with no clear intention to raise rates. With both ethylene oxide and PVC downstream sectors weakening, overall downstream demand for ethylene feedstock continues to decline, and fundamental support remains weak. Under these circumstances, market sentiment has turned cautious, and industry participants hold a relatively bearish outlook, predicting that the ethylene market supply-demand balance will remain weak, leaving room for further price declines.