The 100,000-ton first-phase BDO unit of Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe is currently shut down; the 104,000-ton second-phase unit is expected to shut down on January 6 for catalyst replacement, with an estimated downtime of 7–10 days; the 104,000-ton third-phase unit is operating stably. PriceSeek analysis of 1,4-butanediol, bull-bear score: +1. The shutdown of Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe's 100,000-ton first-phase BDO unit and the expected 7–10-day shutdown of the 104,000-ton second-phase unit for catalyst replacement starting January 6 will result in a short-term reduction of approximately 204,000 tons in production capacity. Although the 104,000-ton third-phase unit is operating stably, overall supply remains tight. Against a backdrop of stable demand, this is expected to drive an increase in the spot price of 1,4-butanediol. The score of +1 (moderately positive) reflects the supportive effect of supply contraction on prices, but the shutdown duration is relatively short and some capacity remains stable, preventing it from reaching a major positive level.
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