On February 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of fertilizers for the 2026 spring ploughing season and the entire year. The notice encourages domestic sulfur to be prioritized for direct supply to domestic phosphate fertilizer producers. Phosphate fertilizer manufacturers are urged to actively supply the domestic market with domestically produced phosphate fertilizers, particularly by strengthening production and supply during the spring ploughing season.

PriceSeek Analysis:

• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Bull-Bear Score: -1
  The policy requires phosphate fertilizer producers to actively supply the domestic market, especially during the spring ploughing season, which will increase the market supply of monoammonium phosphate. This may exert downward pressure on spot prices. Increased supply, combined with the goal of price stabilization, dampens the momentum for price increases, representing a generally bearish influence.

• Phosphoric Acid: Bull-Bear Score: -1
  As a key raw material for phosphate fertilizer production, the policy encourages domestic sulfur to be prioritized for domestic production, indirectly boosting the utilization rate of phosphoric acid capacity. With expectations of increased supply, spot prices of phosphoric acid may face downward pressure, aligning with the goal of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. The score reflects a generally bearish outlook.

• Fertilizers: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
  The overall policy focuses on ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of fertilizers for the spring ploughing season and the entire year. By coordinating sulfur supply and phosphate fertilizer production, the policy aims to ensure ample market supply. This will alleviate upward pressure on prices, but limited declines are expected due to support from peak demand seasons, representing a slightly bearish influence.

• Sulfur: Bull-Bear Score: -1
  The policy explicitly prioritizes domestic sulfur for direct supply to domestic phosphate fertilizer producers, increasing the availability of sulfur in the domestic market. Looser supply conditions may lower spot prices of sulfur, especially as demand remains stable but shows no significant growth during the spring ploughing season. Bearish factors dominate the outlook.