I. Key Focus Points
Core Logic: Supply-demand fundamentals remain in stalemate, leading to high-level market fluctuations.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 24 | Sep 18 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Central Delivery | 13,875 | 13,550 | 2.40% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Ex-Tank Self-Pickup | 13,600 | 13,450 | 1.12% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 106.60 | 103.87 | 2.63% |
| Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15,350 | 15,000 | 2.33% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. CFR China prices are in USD/ton; crude oil prices are in USD/barrel; all other prices are in CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. The two price points represent specific snapshot prices from the previous two working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Data Table
| Data Type | Sep 24 | Sep 18 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sample Inventory | 4.09 | 3.93 | 4.07% | ↗ |
| Production Profit | 4,397 | 5,004 | -12.13% | ↘ |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | 66.53% | 66.11% | 0.42% | ↗ |
| Weekly Output | 10.77 | 10.70 | 0.65% | ↗ |
| 1. Capacity utilization rate reflects the ratio of actual production output to installed capacity for manufacturing enterprises, serving as an indicator of production levels. | ||||
| 2. Weekly output represents the total production volume of sample enterprises for the current week. | ||||
| 3. Production profit is calculated based on theoretical margins using the C4 extraction process. |
IV. Market Outlook
In the short term, approaching holidays may prompt some downstream buyers to replenish inventories based on essential needs. Coupled with sustained high crude oil prices providing cost-side support, this could offer some upward momentum to the market. Traders are maintaining firm offers with little inclination to reduce prices. However, downstream facilities continue to operate at relatively low loads, limiting significant increases in butadiene procurement demand. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a range.
V. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 17:00 PM | 2.37 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Friday 17:00 PM | 4,397 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 17:00 PM | 4.09 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Friday 17:00 PM | 66.53% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 17:00 PM | 10.77 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%. |
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