Butadiene Weekly Outlook

I. Key Focus Areas

1. Crude oil prices remain elevated, providing continued cost support.
2. Downstream demand is weak, with moderate buyer follow-through.

Core Logic: Bull-bear tug-of-war leads to range-bound market consolidation.

II. Price Table

Note:

1. CFR China and crude oil prices are in USD/ton and USD/barrel, respectively; all other prices are in CNY/ton.
2. The two price points represent spot prices from the two preceding working weeks, not weekly averages.
3. Change rate refers to the week-over-week percentage change.

III. Data Table

Notes:

1. Capacity utilization reflects production indicators based on the ratio of plant output to capacity.
2. Weekly output represents the total production volume of sample enterprises for the week.
3. Production profit is calculated theoretically based on the C4 extraction process.

IV. Market Outlook

In the short term, Hainan Refinery plans to restart its unit, while some plants in South China are operating at reduced loads. Consequently, minor fluctuations in butadiene output will have limited directional impact on the market. Elevated crude oil prices provide certain cost support, leading some sellers to adopt a reluctant-to-sell stance despite low offers. However, downstream demand remains persistently weak, with slow recovery in plant loading rates and general willingness among buyers to purchase butadiene. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to trade within a range.

V. Data Calendar

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data with changes between 0% and 3%.