1. Key Points
Core Logic: The market is oscillating at high levels due to the tug-of-war between supply and demand fundamentals.
2. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 30 | Sep 24 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 13,700 | 13,875 | -1.26% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Truck Pickup | 13,400 | 13,600 | -1.47% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 103.53 | 106.60 | -2.88% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15,900 | 15,350 | 3.58% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Unit for CFR China is USD/ton; unit for crude oil is USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices represent spot prices from two previous working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period fluctuation. |
3. Data Table
| Data Type | Sep 30 | Sep 24 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sample Inventory Total | 4.29 | 4.09 | 4.89% | ↗ |
| Production Profit | 4,397 | 4,397 | 0.00% | ↘ |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization | 68.01% | 66.53% | 1.48% | ↗ |
| Weekly Output | 11.01 | 10.77 | 2.23% | ↗ |
| 1. Capacity utilization reflects production metrics, defined as the ratio of actual output to total capacity for operating plants. | ||||
| 2. Weekly output represents the total production volume of sample enterprises for the current week. | ||||
| 3. Production profit is calculated based on theoretical margins for the C4 extraction process. |
4. Market Outlook
Following the holiday break, domestic market activity is resuming. Some domestic plants are expected to restart operations, leading to a slight increase in butadiene supply. However, downstream plants are largely operating at low rates, resulting in strong cautious sentiment and procurement restricted to essential needs, which may weigh on market momentum. Meanwhile, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, providing cost support that keeps sellers' offers firm. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is projected to consolidate at elevated levels.
5. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Time | Previous Value | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.60 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 4,397 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 4.29 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Fri 17:00 PM | 68.01% | ↘ |
| 1. ↗/↘ indicates upward/downward trends; significant changes (>±3%) are marked with ↑/↓. |
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