Bullish sentiment persists, with ECH prices continuing their upward trend.

1. Daily Summary

① Glycerin prices remained largely stable with minor fluctuations; East China 99.5% glycerin was priced at 8,850–9,050 RMB/ton (delivered to surrounding areas).
② ECH continued its upward trend; the Jiangsu market price stood at 11,150–11,250 RMB/ton (delivered via acceptance bill).
③ Cost pressures persisted as downstream buyers engaged in essential procurement, leading to a slight increase in epoxy resin prices amidst overall stability.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic ECH Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Taking the Jiangsu region as the benchmark, today's ECH price closed at 11,200 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton from the previous day, aligning with morning expectations. The domestic ECH market continued its upward trajectory. Currently, significant cost pressures across different production processes have led to notable profit shrinkage. Combined with enterprises focusing on fulfilling existing orders and facing no inventory pressure, willingness to offer low prices has weakened, sustaining the upward trend in negotiation centers. Downstream buyers are inquiring opportunistically but remain cautious about high-priced raw materials, resulting in transactions primarily driven by essential demand.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH plants maintained low-load operations, with an industry capacity utilization rate of approximately 44%. For propylene-based ECH, the cost was 10,406 RMB/ton, yielding a daily profit of 4,690 RMB/ton. For glycerin-based ECH, the cost was 11,950 RMB/ton, resulting in a daily loss of 750 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ECH is expected to maintain its upward momentum. High cost pressures persist, and since enterprises are prioritizing order fulfillment, their willingness to sell at lower prices has diminished; some have even suspended external quotations due to bullish outlooks for the future. Downstream users are mostly consuming existing inventories of raw materials and remain cautious regarding high-priced inputs, maintaining small-scale transactions based on essential needs. Therefore, domestic ECH prices are likely to see a narrow-range upward movement while remaining generally stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to follow-through in downstream demand.

5. Related Product Updates

Epoxy Resin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, today's ex-works price for liquid E-51 epoxy resin (net water basis) closed at 14,900–15,200 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Huangshan, the cash settlement price for solid E-12 epoxy resin (surrounding area basis) closed at 14,400–14,800 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton from the last trading day, consistent with morning market expectations. With upstream ECH prices rising slightly, cost pressures on the epoxy resin market have increased. Factory offers have risen accordingly; however, limited follow-through from downstream demand means the center of gravity for the liquid market remains consolidated, while solid resin prices saw a modest increase.

Glycerin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, today's delivered price for 99.5% glycerin closed at 8,950 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Freight costs were referenced at 150 RMB/ton, broadly matching morning expectations. The domestic glycerin market traded within a range. Although downstream epoxy resin prices continued to rise, losses incurred by glycerin-based ECH producers have led them to prioritize consuming existing inventories rather than actively purchasing new raw materials. Consequently, demand provides little substantive support to the glycerin market. Coupled with ample spot supply, sellers are focused on negotiating sales, with low-priced goods still available in the market and weak transaction activity at higher price levels. In the short term, sellers may continue to offer discounts to facilitate sales, suggesting that the domestic glycerin market will likely trend weaker while remaining generally stable.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: RMB/ton)