Lead-in: During the National Day holiday, domestic markets were closed. International crude oil prices retreated from highs due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and news of G7 strategic reserve releases. Most aromatic products on Asian foreign markets strengthened. Spot prices for gasoline and aromatics in the Shandong region declined slightly; refinery production and sales were weak, but pre-holiday presales were robust, resulting in manageable inventory pressure. After the holiday, domestic markets are expected to see a correction in the price gap between domestic and international markets, with trends primarily driven by the interplay between crude oil costs and downstream restocking rhythms.
Table 1: Comparison of International Crude Oil and Related Product USD Prices (USD/barrel)
| Product | Sep 29 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 89.38 | 89.43 | 0.05 |
| Brent | 102.59 | 100.32 | -2.27 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International crude oil prices fluctuated violently during the National Day period. Affected by US-Iran conflicts and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude briefly surged above $102/barrel. Subsequently, the G7 announced the release of approximately 100 million barrels from strategic reserves, Middle Eastern exports resumed, and Saudi Arabia significantly lowered its selling prices for Asia. These factors eased supply concerns. By October 5, Brent had fallen back to $100.32/barrel, and WTI dropped to $89.43/barrel.
Table 2: Comparison of International Aromatic Product Prices (USD/ton)
| Product Name | Price Type | Sep 29 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naphtha | CFR Japan | 878.75 | 913.875 | 35.125 |
| Toluene | FOB Korea | 1190 | 1215 | 25 |
| Xylene | FOB Korea | 1153.5 | 1182 | 28.5 |
| Benzene | FOB Korea | 1185 | 1189 | 4 |
| PX | CFR China | 1233 | 1273 | 40 |
| SM | FOB Korea | 1425 | 1412 | -13 |
| MTBE | FOB Singapore | 1139 | 1168 | 29 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The Asian aromatic sector showed a divergent pattern. Due to the Chinese market closure for the National Day Golden Week (October 1–7), domestic trading participants exited, leading to thin transaction volumes and limited market liquidity. Upstream crude oil initially rose before weakening; the news of the G7 releasing over 100 million barrels of strategic reserves pressured oil prices, causing fluctuations in naphtha costs. The trends of aromatic varieties were influenced jointly by raw materials, regional supply/demand, and inventory differences. Tight toluene supply supported price strength, while rising freight rates in South Asia led the market to anticipate wider spreads for India CFR toluene. Solvent demand in Southeast Asia was weak, but sellers maintained firm offers. Some producers indicated that if the spread between aromatics and feedstocks remained insufficient, they might consider shutting down BTX units. Additionally, MTBE weakened alongside falling crude oil prices, with Singapore FOB prices declining, although some November shipment cargoes had already been finalized domestically in China before the holiday.
Table 3: Comparison of Shandong Gasoline and Aromatic Product Prices (RMB/ton)
| Product Name | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92# Gasoline | 10093 | 9914 | -179 |
| Toluene | 8675 | 8625 | -50 |
| Xylene | 8526 | 8460 | -66 |
| Mixed Aromatics | 8500 | 8450 | -50 |
| Trimethylbenzene | 8606 | 8540 | -66 |
| MTBE | 8000 | 8100 | 100 |
| Raffinate Oil | 8240 | 7800 | -440 |
| Mixed C5 | 7380 | 7050 | -330 |
| Alkylate | 10300 | 10300 | 0 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the holiday, crude oil oscillated at high levels, providing solid cost support. Although spot prices for gasoline and feedstocks in the Shandong region declined slightly, downside potential within the market remained limited. Overall gasoline production and sales were weak, averaging around 70% and failing to reach equilibrium. Meanwhile, refinery feedstock supply remained tight, limiting the willingness to proactively cut prices. Regarding equipment, Xin Chemical’s unit experienced an unplanned shutdown.
Table 4: Comparison of Shandong Refinery Toluene Prices (RMB/ton)
| Enterprise Name | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dongfang Hualong | 8700 | 8550 | -150 |
| Qicheng Petrochemical | 8650 | - | - |
| Zhenghe Petrochemical | 8700 | 8700 | 0 |
| Youtai Technology | - | - | - |
| Wudi Xinyue | 8753 | - | - |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 8750 | 8700 | -50 |
| Yatong Petrochemical | 8720 | 8650 | -70 |
| Dongying Qirun | 8703 | 8653 | -50 |
| Huaxing Petrochemical | 8703 | 8653 | -50 |
| Jingbo Petrochemical | 9000 | - | - |
| Yulong Petrochemical | 8600 | - | - |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the holiday, overall production and sales of toluene by Shandong refineries did not reach equilibrium, with average sell-through rates below 10%. However, because many refineries successfully cleared inventories before the holiday, with presales generally covering deliveries through October 3–4, actual refinery inventories were better than the production-sales data suggested.
It is estimated that the domestic aromatic market will primarily experience high-level oscillating adjustments after the holiday. International crude oil remains subject to geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, carrying significant volatility risk, which will continue to dominate the cost side of aromatics. Rising USD prices for related aromatics in Asia provide certain psychological support for domestic aromatics. Local prices for gasoline and toluene in Shandong have previously declined slightly; refinery supply remains tight with little willingness to proactively cut prices. However, genuine downstream demand is limited, lacking strong momentum for a significant rebound, so short-term trends are expected to be narrow fluctuations. Key focus areas going forward include geopolitical news regarding crude oil, the intensity of downstream resumption and restocking, and the operational status of refinery units.
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