Introduction: In November, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) pricing surged significantly. Major refrigerant producers in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region set their price centers at RMB 15,300–15,650 per ton, with increases ranging from RMB 500 to 1,100 per ton. The Shandong region absorbed these higher prices, with its price center settling at RMB 15,500–15,600 per ton. Consequently, price differentials between northern and southern China have largely disappeared, with regional prices converging.
Northern major plants remain offline; bullish sentiment continues to build on tight supply fundamentals.
The market’s upward momentum for AHF shows no signs of abating. There is still no clear signal indicating when major northern plants will resume operations. Market participants are leveraging the tight supply situation to repeatedly push prices higher. Although AHF prices have experienced some range-bound fluctuations since July, the overall trend has continued to break through recent highs. Following the official price announcements, spot trading activity within the market has been exceptionally vigorous, with spot transactions no longer occurring below the official pricing levels. High market prices have prompted most manufacturers to either resume production or maintain high operating rates over the long term. However, prolonged high-load production has led some companies to offer shipment compensation to secure orders. This dynamic shift in capacity utilization continues to sustain bullish sentiment and supports the elevated price center.
Rising sulfuric acid costs reinforce bullish expectations among market participants.
In October, regional disparities in China’s sulfuric acid market intensified significantly. The national average price for 98% sulfuric acid rose from RMB 1,232/ton at the beginning of the month to RMB 1,395/ton by month-end, averaging RMB 1,391/ton for the month—a slight decrease of RMB 6/ton (-0.43%) compared to September. Prior to the National Day holiday, acid producers in Hubei, Anhui, and Henan proactively lowered prices to alleviate inventory buildup pressures. Once prices hit low levels, sales improved markedly, directing low-priced cargo toward regions like Shandong and Hebei, where prices remained relatively high. During the holiday period, quotes across various regions largely held steady at pre-holiday levels as the market adopted a wait-and-see approach. Meanwhile, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China entered their early-month price adjustment window. As fertilizer demand in the Northeast wound down following the autumn season, both regions implemented unified price reductions. By mid-month, regional divergence became clearer. Areas such as Guangxi, Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi saw listed prices rise broadly due to tighter supply resulting from concentrated maintenance shutdowns at major acid plants. Conversely, downstream acceptance in Eastern Inner Mongolia was sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation and multiple downward adjustments in listed prices. Acid producers in Shandong faced bearish sentiment due to the inflow of earlier low-priced cargo and price cuts in surrounding markets, causing prices to drift slowly lower amid stalemate conditions. By month-end, regional disparities widened further. In southern markets, particularly Jiangxi and Fujian, rising sulfuric acid costs exerted pressure on the cost side, squeezing profit margins. Combined with persistent bullish pushes driven by tight supply, this ultimately triggered another significant surge in AHF prices.
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